The imprisonment of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by his American counterpart Donald Trump and his intention to control the country's oil industry has boosted oil prices. At the Dutch pump, gasoline has become more expensive primarily due to the excise duty hike. Gasoline is also rising slightly in price, but remains relatively cheap.
A barrel of Brent crude oil costs $62,00 at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, January 6th), a 2% increase compared to the price before the weekend when the US invaded Venezuela to capture Maduro ($60,75 on January 2nd). Overproduction and slowing growth in major economies are keeping oil prices relatively low. The OPEC+ countries confirmed on Sunday that they will maintain production levels through March and not increase them continuously as they did last year.
Last month, the oil price even briefly dipped below $60 (see chart). Recent geopolitical developments have now pushed the oil price slightly higher.
'Investing billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil industry'
During his press conference last Saturday, Trump made no bones about his imperialist motives and his desire to target Venezuelan oil. He said: "As everyone knows, the oil industry in Venezuela has been a complete failure for a long time. They pumped almost nothing compared to what they could have pumped. We will send our very large American oil companies—the largest in the world—there to invest billions of dollars, to rebuild the severely damaged infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and to start making money for the country, and we are prepared to launch a second and much larger strike if necessary."
According to OPEC data, Venezuela has oil reserves of 303 billion barrels. This is more than the largest exporter, Saudi Arabia, which has reserves of 267 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia exported an average of 6,05 million barrels per day in 2024, while Venezuela exported 660.000 barrels per day. While the South American country may have the world's largest oil reserves, it is primarily very heavy and sour crude that requires advanced refining. This makes the oil less lucrative, and many Venezuelan facilities are outdated. Investments in these facilities are even less attractive with the current low oil price. Trump has said he wants to subsidize US oil companies to build facilities and infrastructure to extract Venezuelan oil. Experts say this would take years. The oil companies that would be responsible for this have not yet commented.
Trump also claims that Venezuela stole US oil and should be compensated for it. He's referring to the nationalization of the Venezuelan oil industry in the 1970s, for which foreign oil companies were bought off. The American company Chevron is still active in Venezuela and is (partially) exempt from US sanctions, and therefore also exports Venezuelan oil to the US.
80% of Venezuelan oil goes to China
Reuters cites documents from the state-owned oil company PdVSA showing that in November 2025, Chevron shipped approximately 128.000 barrels per day to the US. This is (due to sanctions) only half of what the company produces in its joint venture with PdVSA. The market expects US oil companies to benefit from the situation; both Chevron's share and that of other oil companies in the US have risen sharply. The lion's share of Venezuelan oil exports, approximately 80%, goes to China. Cuba is the third-largest importer and is largely dependent on Venezuelan oil.
Trump's next plans are fraught with great uncertainty, not only in Venezuela but also in other countries in the Western Hemisphere, particularly Colombia, Mexico, Cuba, and Greenland. Trump's action also seems to give other leaders, such as Putin in Ukraine or Xi Jinping in Taiwan, carte blanche to do their thing.
Excise duty increase
On January 6, diesel cost €129,69 per 100 liters (LTO member price) for 4.000 liters or more. The huge increase since December 31 can be partly attributed to the excise duty increase effective January 1. For diesel, this is 3,6 cents per liter.
The temporary excise duty reduction during the energy crisis has been further reversed as of January 1st. This means the price of gasoline at the pump will increase by 5,6 cents per liter and LPG by 1,3 cents.
Gas prices increased but still relatively low
At the time of writing, the gas price is still relatively low on the TTF gas futures market, at €27,89 per MWh. However, this represents a 5% increase compared to the price on December 16th, when the lowest price since April 2024 was recorded at €26,55 per MWh.
This week, average gas demand is higher than last week on almost every day except Thursday, according to the National Energy Dashboard's energy forecast. More wind energy is also being generated this week than in the three-year average.
The Dutch gas supply is lower this season due to the low gas price. On November 1st, the gas supply was almost 80% full. It is currently at 46% (data from January 2nd). A year ago, it was almost 55% on the same date. The caretaker government assured in mid-November that a (limited) shortage could only arise in the event of an extremely cold winter, and that in that case, it sees ways to mitigate it.