Global tensions will create new opportunities for Brazilian agribusiness in 2026, according to a new RaboResearch study by Rabobank. Exporters of soy and animal proteins, in particular, stand to benefit from shifting trade flows, while the Brazilian grain sector remains under pressure due to high interest rates and debt from previous years.
According to Rabobank, import duties, quotas, and anti-dumping measures are increasingly altering the global transport routes of agricultural products. For example, China is introducing a new quota for Brazilian beef. Volumes above that level are subject to substantial tariffs, which could impact export flows later this year. At the same time, Rabobank sees opportunities opening up for Brazilian exporters as the United States puts pressure on its trading partners. This could make Brazil a more attractive supplier of soy, among other commodities.
The bank also sees opportunities in pork. China is hampering approvals for American slaughterhouses and imposing temporary anti-dumping duties on European pork. This creates more room for Brazilian suppliers in the Asian market. This shift is already visible in Mexico: imports of Brazilian chicken have risen sharply, partly because trade policy friction with the US is making alternatives more attractive.
Feed costs fall, meat exports remain strong
Rabobank expects Brazilian meat exports to remain strong in 2026. A key factor is the decline in feed costs. According to the bank, grain and oilseed prices will likely rise only slightly, keeping feed relatively cheap. This is beneficial for the poultry and pig sectors. Increased corn ethanol production will also provide more protein-rich byproducts for animal feed, which can further reduce costs. Furthermore, increased biodiesel blending will stimulate soy processing, increasing the availability of raw materials and byproducts.
For many grain and oilseed farmers, the situation remains more challenging. Rabobank points to tight margins and high local interest rates, leaving highly indebted companies financially vulnerable. While interest rates may fall slightly, the bank expects the resulting relief to be limited. Nevertheless, growth is expected to continue: Rabobank anticipates a 2% expansion of the soybean acreage in the 2025/26 season.
Sugar under pressure, corn ethanol continues to grow
In other sectors, however, margin pressure could arise globally. Rabobank warns that a large sugarcane harvest in the Center-South region in 2026 could negatively impact sugar and ethanol prices. This poses a dilemma for processors: shift more cane towards sugar or towards ethanol. According to Rabobank, the Brazilian corn ethanol industry appears unaffected by these prospects and is expected to continue growing in capacity and production.