Gas prices have risen by a third in two weeks. Winter weather and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are contributing factors. Oil prices also rose, but they are also being held back by a tariff war that US President Trump threatens to unleash if Europe doesn't give in to Greenland.
Oil prices rose last week due to concerns about possible US military intervention in Iran and the threat of higher US import tariffs on countries that trade with it. On Wednesday, January 14, the oil price peaked at $66,52 per barrel, reaching its highest level since October 24, 2025. The oil price has since come under some pressure again, but at $65,01 per barrel at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, January 20), it is still higher than the average of the past two months.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the US were to attack it. Roughly a third of the world's oil trade passes through this narrow strait. However, the likelihood of this happening, and of it being successful (or even long-term), is considered slim.
Trump has been less assertive about possible intervention in recent days, although he did say last weekend that it's time for new leadership in Iran, prompting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to warn that an attack on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would amount to "all-out war" against the country. Due to the lack of military intervention in Iran and the escalation of the tariff war, oil prices are now under pressure again. Overproduction also continues to dampen oil prices.
Oil prices have come under pressure, partly because Trump announced an additional 10% import tariff (on top of the 15%) for the eight countries, including the Netherlands, that sent troops to Greenland for a Danish reconnaissance mission. In response, the EU wants to dust off the remaining import duties as a countermeasure to the tariffs Trump is imposing. There is even talk of deploying the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), better known as the "bazooka," which was established in 2023. This instrument can, among other things, impose export restrictions and ban companies from a country from the European market. This renewed tariff war could damage the economies of both the EU and the US, thus dampening oil demand.
One of the factors supporting the oil price is the shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan due to fires. Kazakh oil exports have already been disrupted since a Ukrainian drone attack on a Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea coast in Russia in November.
Diesel
On January 20, the price of diesel was €132,80 per 100 liters for 4.000 liters or more (LTO member price). A week earlier, diesel cost €130,57 per 100 liters.
Gradual total ban on Russian gas
The gas price has risen sharply, from €27,40 per MWh on January 5th to €36,47 per MWh at the time of writing (January 20th). Last Friday, January 16th, the gas price reached a recent peak on the TTF futures market at €36,88 per MWh, the highest price in six months. In two weeks, the gas price has risen by a third. Winter weather is to blame, but geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are also contributing to the price increase. Besides oil, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz also poses a risk to gas. This is the only route for liquefied natural gas from Qatar, which accounts for approximately one-fifth of LNG exports. The geopolitical unrest is impacting gas prices.
Partly due to the sanctions on Russian gas, Europe has become quite dependent on American LNG. Last month, an agreement was reached in Brussels on a phased ban on Russian gas. Imports of Russian LNG will be completely banned from January 1, 2027, and pipeline gas will be banned no later than November 1, 2027. "Russia can never again use fossil fuel exports as a weapon against Europe," said Ville Niinistö, rapporteur for the Committee on Industry, Research and Energy, in a press release from the European Parliament. Despite sanctions on Russian gas, 13% of the EU's gas imports still come from Russia, with an import value of over €15 billion per year. For oil, this is only 3% of imported oil. The question arises, however, now that the US is turning against Europe as an ally, how dependent we want to remain on the Americans instead of the Russians.
Due to the winter weather, European gas reserves have been significantly depleted. In Europe, reserves are now just over half full. In the Netherlands, this is over 36%. A year ago, that figure was almost 72% and 46%. Gas reserves were already less full at the beginning of winter due to the low gas price. According to outgoing Energy Minister Sophie Hermans (VVD), there is no need to worry because there is sufficient gas available outside of storage. She told Nu.nl: "Ships carrying liquid gas dock here every week. That's very stable, very calm. So there is sufficient gas."
The wintry weather seemed to be over, but temperatures are dropping again this week (although actual cold seems to be elusive). According to the National Energy Dashboard's energy weather report, gas demand for heating has been above last week's average all week.
Stroom
Solar and wind energy generation fluctuated this week. On Thursday, both generated significantly more than the three-year average. The daily average on the European Power Exchange (Epex Spot) fluctuated at a relatively steady (high) level last week, with prices ranging from €97,60 per MWh on January 15th to €139,98 (January 19th).