The cost price for producing French fries potatoes will decrease in 2026 for the first time in four years. This is the conclusion of the Dutch Arable Farmers' Union (NAV) based on its own cost price calculations. However, a decrease of 1% to 1,5% is far from sufficient to offset the drop in contract prices. It is striking that the spread in production costs is increasing between sandy and clay soils.
Growing French fries potatoes is estimated to become slightly cheaper this year, according to NAV's standard cost price calculation. This price is, of course, no one's cost price, but by comparing year-on-year using the same method, the percentage changes are an important indicator of profitability in the potato sector.
Cheaper seed potatoes
The decrease, ranging from 1% for delivery from storage in April to 1,5% for delivery directly from the field, can be considered very slight. It's the result of small decreases and some increases. The biggest gain is in the seed potato category, which has a €200 lower NAV per hectare in the basic calculation. Potato processors boast that costs are falling faster, usually by around €500. Therefore, the decrease may be somewhat conservative. The final decrease depends heavily on the use of (free) varieties.
Income from the supply of liquid manure will increase slightly this year. NAV expects an increase of €75 per hectare compared to 2024. For sandy soil, this means €375 per hectare and for clay soil, €225. Fertilizer prices have not been affected. However, the associated costs have risen, partly due to levies and higher gas prices.
Higher editing costs
Total allocated costs, i.e., cultivation costs, decreased by €215 per hectare. Total cultivation costs, which also include labor and machinery costs, increased by approximately the same amount. This is due to more expensive labor. Other items, such as land and buildings, general costs, and storage costs, remained virtually unchanged.
The bottom line is that the cost price for delivery from the field is 16,2 cents for sandy soil and 19,8 cents for clay soil. From the barn, the costs are 21 and 25,3 cents respectively. Compared to last year, the decrease is therefore negligible. This represents a difference of 0,2 to 0,4 cents compared to 2025. NAV calculates 53,5 and 48,5 tons per hectare for delivery from the field (clay and sand). In April, these are 50,75 and 46 tons per hectare. This is 1.500 kilos lower than the 2024 calculation. Irrigation costs (at €270 per hectare for 25mm) are not included in the calculation example, although they often occur in practice. Two irrigation sessions increase the cost price by approximately 1 cent. On the other hand, the yield also increases. The grower's margin is also not included in the costs.
Distribution of sand and clay
It's striking that growing potatoes on clay soil is becoming more expensive faster than for counterparts on sand. Percentage-wise, this isn't too bad. In five years, the cost price on sand rose by 16% to 18%. For clay soil, it's 19% to 20%. Ten years ago, the difference between sand and clay was €465 to €420 per hectare (field and storage), while now it's risen to €950 and €1.123. That doesn't sound like much at first glance, but for 25 hectares of potatoes, that's an additional €28.000 that a potato grower on clay soil pays for delivering their potatoes in April. This has to be compensated for in the market by delivering a higher-priced quality.
Finally, it's also interesting to look at the development of the cost price versus the contract price. Above, you can see the price trend on sandy soil. In 2023, 2024, and 2025, the average contract price exceeded the cost price level, especially from storage. This is particularly evident on sandy soil. For growers on clay soil, see the graph below, this margin is much smaller, and the two lines already crossed last season. The graphs also show that significant cutting is done off the land and less so from storage.
Lucrative for 'sand grower'
Judging from the figures above, it remains relatively attractive for potato growers on sandy soil to cultivate French fries. They are (slightly) better off in terms of cost price compared to their clay-based counterparts. It should be noted, however, that the basic contract prices don't reflect the higher product quality. The average contract prices for 2026 are also not yet fully finalized. The fact remains that the cost increase is hitting growers on clay soil harder.
This year, potato processors, in particular, are focusing more than ever on delivering quality and varieties that match this. Think of Innovator, Agria, and Lugano, for example. They are being selective with growers and agreements. Fewer potatoes are being planted on less-developed soils, often sandy and peat-covered. In traditional clay-growing areas, however, volume remains stable. The question is whether this quality is sufficiently remunerated, or whether volume alone can always yield higher margins.