ABN Amro expects that income from milk, pork, potatoes, and sugar beets will not (fully) recover over the next six months. Dairy farmers, pig farmers, and arable farmers will also face high spring costs. The bank therefore predicts negative liquidity developments for them. This is different for poultry and veal farmers and the greenhouse horticulture sector, for which the outlook is positive.
In a new 'State of the Agricultural SectorABN Amro indicates that the financial returns from the 2025 harvest will be significantly disappointing and that contract prices for the 2026 harvest will be approximately 15% lower, and the number of hectares and the volumes per hectare will be capped.
Long-term recovery of the French fry potato and sugar beet market
Over time, the market for French fries potatoes and sugar beets will recover as the oversupply diminishes, but the bank expects growers to see little impact in 2026. The shift in cultivation plans to onions, carrots, and cabbage crops will create additional supply and potentially negative price pressure, while the market price for onions from the 2025 harvest is already fluctuating around cost price, according to the State of the Agricultural Sector.
According to ABN Amro, extreme rainfall in Southern Europe "may lead to a temporary price increase for carrots, broccoli, and cauliflower, but will not provide a structural improvement."
The bank expects costs for growers to normalize this year, but will remain high. The situation in the Middle East could drive up energy and fertilizer prices. Growers can expect a small windfall in the form of higher fertilizer revenues, according to ABN Amro.
Ultimately, arable farmers' liquidity position is deteriorating this year, and accumulated reserves will have to be tapped. According to the bank, few companies have experienced liquidity problems due to the poor potato market. ABN Amro: "We expect a limited peak in this situation in the second quarter due to spring spending."
Milk price bottom reached
The average liquidity position of specialized dairy farms will double to €132.000 by 2025, according to ABN Amro transaction data from over 1.000 farms. However, in January, a global dairy oversupply pushed the milk price down to 38 cents per liter, below the breakeven point. According to the bank, this means the bottom has been reached. Recovery appears to be underway, but it will take several months before dairy farmers see this reflected in the milk price, ABN Amro states.
Due to disappointing income, high tax payments, and rising manure disposal costs, dairy farmers will have to tap into last year's reserves this year. ABN Amro therefore expects the liquidity position of dairy farmers to deteriorate in the coming six months.
Pig meat farms are going to use up their reserves
The sales prices of piglets and meat pigs fell by about 8% in 2025. China's levy on European pork
disrupts optimal pig valuation. Due to ASF in Spain, pigs that were not allowed to be exported outside the EU were sold in other European countries, according to ABN Amro.
Lower feed prices couldn't compensate for this. Pig farmers are producing below cost, with a deficit of €30 to €35 per delivered pig for closed farms and €20 to €25 for specialized sow farms, according to the bank's calculations. Participants in programs like Beter Leven operate at a cost-price guarantee.
According to the bank, pig farms will be drawing down their reserves in 2026 "because they purchased piglets at a high price, but have to sell pork to processors below cost." The bank expects this to have a knock-on effect on sow farmers, who will also face negative liquidity developments. However, the bank also sees "the first signs of improvement with rising piglet prices," which could potentially mitigate the loss this year.
Positive outlook for poultry, calves and greenhouse horticulture
The outlook for veal and poultry farmers is favorable. Due to market tightness, their incomes in 2025 were well above the long-term average. According to the bank, liquidity development will remain positive in the coming six months, although the bank expects veal prices to have peaked.
Price trends are also positive in the greenhouse vegetable and ornamental horticulture sectors. Extreme weather in Southern Europe has led to crop failures in various vegetables, causing prices to rise. Dutch greenhouse vegetable growers are benefiting from this, according to the bank.