Analysis Energy
Diesel price at a historically high level
An unexpected pause in US attacks against Iran is causing a drop in energy prices. However, energy prices remain at a high level. In the case of diesel, this is even a historically high level.
With €200,05 per 100 liters starting from 4.000 liters (LTO member price), a new record high was set for the diesel price on Monday. That has been reduced by 3,4% today (€193,22), but diesel remains at a historically high level.
UnitedConsumers has been tracking diesel prices at Dutch pumps since November 7, 2000. The lowest price was recorded on May 29, 2003, at €0,751 per liter. The highest price was reported yesterday, Monday, March 23, at €2,682 per liter. The average national recommended price that day was €2,671.
There is little room for growth in the demand for diesel due to high usage in the transport and agricultural sectors. Despite significant refining capacity in Europe, imports are indispensable to meet demand. A contributing factor is that only a portion of the available crude oil is suitable for diesel production. With the loss of Russia as a supplier, dependence on imports from the Middle East (in addition to the US) has increased further.
On Monday, US President Trump announced a five-day pause in attacks on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. He did this just before the expiration of his ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise he would 'destroy' the Iranian energy supply. According to Trump, the US and Iran have held good talks and are close to ending hostilities. Iran denied this, however, but it appears that there has been indirect communication between the US and Iran via Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan.
The oil price rose to $112,19 per barrel on Friday, the highest level since June 2022. Following the announcement of the pause in aggression, oil prices fell rapidly, but today (March 24) they are on the rise again. At $103,51 at the time of writing, a barrel of oil still costs 7,7% less than before the weekend, with the note that the price is therefore rising again.
Gas prices are falling faster
The gas price on the TTF futures exchange also fell after it became known that Trump would not launch an attack on Iran's entire energy supply. Today, the gas price dropped further to €53,88 per megawatt-hour at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, March 24). Compared to the gas price last Friday, this represents a drop of 12,9% compared to last Thursday, March 19, when the gas price reached its highest point in over three years.
Electricity
The average daily price for electricity on the EPEX Spot fluctuated between €77,81 and €134,56 per megawatt-hour last week.
Slightly less than half (48%) of electricity production comes from fossil fuels (new CBS figures for 2025). Consequently, the war in the Middle East is also impacting electricity prices.
The direction energy prices will take in the short term depends on how long hostilities in the Middle East continue and the damage inflicted on energy production and infrastructure. For the time being, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains the same, with limited shipping traffic where vessels take risks or are reportedly being paid Iranian authorities for the free passage of (non-US or Israeli-affiliated) tankers.
The risk of persistently high inflation is increasing.
Prolonged very high energy prices are also impacting the prices of other products and wages, De Nederlandsche Bank indicated today in an outlook. As a result, the risk of persistently high inflation is increasing, according to DNB. However, the central bank expects inflation to be lower than during the energy crisis in 2022. According to DNB, shocks must be absorbed by strengthening the European market. "Much can be gained if EU countries remove unnecessary regulatory pressure, unnecessary administrative burdens, and trade barriers."
Linda van Eekeres
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