In the span of a month, the price of nitrogen fertilizer has increased by more than 25%. The price of phosphate-containing fertilizers is also rising significantly. Large differences in price and stock are sometimes noticeable between suppliers. In this analysis, we examine the price outlook for the short and medium term. Read on.
Supplier Farmers4All is applying a price of €47,80 per 100 kilos for KAS delivered in big bags for this week (week 13). The price of loose product stands at €45,70. This means the price has increased by more than a quarter in a month. Four weeks ago, the price was still €37,80. The current price is the highest level in over three years. A similar increase is noticeable at producer Triferto. Nutramon (KAS), loose, stood at €47,40 per 100 kilos last week. An increase of 24% compared to early February.
The price of TripleSuper phosphate fertilizer shot up earlier and is now stabilizing. For the third week in a row, Farmers4All is maintaining a price of €70,80 for product in big bags and €68,70 for loose product. That is 10% more than at the beginning of this year.
Very unstable market
Fertilizer producer Yara warns that prices and availability can currently vary significantly between traders. "We are currently seeing a very unstable market," said sales agronomist Martijn Scheppers during a webinar recently organized by Yara. According to Scheppers, the fact that nitrogen and phosphate in particular are reacting so strongly to global issues is logically explainable. "Iran is not only a major producer of gas, but also of urea. Many fertilizers are transported via the Strait of Hormuz. For example, half of all sulfur." Other sources even state that more than a third of all fertilizer worldwide is transported through this narrow strait.
Yara emphasizes that it is not active in Iran and the surrounding countries itself, but in Europe we are dealing with the consequences. According to Scheppers, there is no fertilizer shortage in Europe. "There is no panic." At the beginning of this year, the European CBAM levy came into effect, under which fertilizer from outside the EU is taxed more heavily. Import figures showed that imports decreased by 80%, whereas they actually doubled in December 2025. Organizations such as Copa-Cogeca therefore called for an end to this levy, and twelve European member states also made this appeal. The European Commission has not yet heeded this call.
Scheppers emphasizes that not just one factor is causing the price explosion. It involves a combination of factors and market sentiment. Yara hammers Therefore, make sure to purchase in a staggered manner, so that you as a farmer are always assured of sufficient fertilizer and partially absorb price peaks.
European dependence
The consequences of the conflict in Iran once again make painfully clear how dependent Europe is on its fertilizer supply, just as the war in Ukraine did in 2022. In the meantime, steps have been taken to reduce this dependency, but this has not had sufficient effect. Other countries, including India, Vietnam, and African nations, are also feeling the pain of the high prices.
Meanwhile, Russia and Belarus are seeing their revenues rise from sales of oil, gas, and fertilizer. Yet the European door remains partially closed. Russian companies control 23% of all ammonia exports and 14% of all urea. Belarus even accounts for 40% of all phosphate exports worldwide. Nevertheless, the European Commission continues to block imports of these substances, despite a call from Hungary this week to temporarily lift the restrictions. According to insiders, the chances of the European Commission dropping the levies are slim. Last Tuesday, Moscow banned the export of ammonium nitrate, claiming it did so to ensure it had sufficient product available itself.
Price remains high
Just like in 2022, the price explosion occurs at the start of the growing season, precisely when fertilizer is being used extensively. Many farmers therefore already have stock in their barns, meaning the impact is not yet felt as strongly in the short term. For those who waited to buy fertilizer, the situation is different. It is highly likely that the consequences of the conflict will have long-lasting effects.
Agricultural entrepreneurs must therefore reckon with persistently high fertilizer prices for this season. They are dealing with the challenge in different ways. Some are waiting to see what happens, while others prefer to buy up some stock now. Suppliers of alternative nitrogen fertilizers derived from residual streams are also noticing increased demand. For example, dairy farmers are choosing to spread liquid fertilizer on grassland now and leave their synthetic fertilizer in the silo or big bag for later this year.
Toll collection
The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz remains a literal bottleneck. On Thursday, March 26, it was announced that the Iranian government is devising a plan to levy tolls on ships, while guaranteeing safe passage. That could provide some relief to the energy and fertilizer markets, but the problems are much broader.