EU prepares for prolonged energy shortage

Today, energy ministers are meeting in an emergency session to discuss the energy crisis. In a leaked letter sent by EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen to the energy ministers of the member states, the European Commission calls for voluntary measures to be taken to reduce fuel demand, particularly in the transport sector. According to Jørgensen, the European Union must prepare for a potentially prolonged disruption. There is also a warning against taking measures in isolation, such as excise duty cuts.

Non-essential maintenance on refineries should be postponed and more biofuels should be used. According to various media, the letter also refers to the 10-point plan presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA) two weeks ago. This includes measures such as lowering speed limits, working from home, promoting public transport, and alternating license plates allowed on the road on certain days. The Dutch government has not (yet) adopted anything from this. 

Officially, Trump has issued a new ultimatum for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which expires on April 6. However, he reportedly told his staff that he is prepared to end the war even if the strait remains largely closed, writes The Wall Street Journal. Even though with Trump you can never be sure if he does what he says, allies from Europe and the Gulf States are not at the forefront of clearing the strait, and the question is whether Trump is truly prepared to proceed. boots on the ground.

Another oil tanker was attacked yesterday. The tanker was located near Dubai and caught fire, reports the relevant authority, the UKMTO. In total, 16 ships have now been attacked in the region since February 28, and nine suspicious activities have been reported. These incidents are not limited to the Strait of Hormuz but are also taking place in the Persian Gulf and on the eastern side of the strait, in the Gulf of Oman.

Oil reaches new recent high
At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, March 31), the Brent oil price has reached a new recent high of $117,03 per barrel. That is an increase of 14,5% compared to last Wednesday.

Compared to the recent peak of €200,05 per 100 liters starting from 4.000 liters (LTO member price) on Monday, March 23, the price of diesel has dropped slightly to €191,71 per 100 liters. However, last Thursday, March 26, the price was €180,21. This shows that the day on which you buy (large quantities of) diesel can make a significant difference.

Inflation is rising due to higher energy prices
Pump prices are also causing inflation to rise again. In the eurozone, inflation fell from 1,9% in February to 2,5% in March. Energy prices rose by 4,9% year-on-year in the euro countries.

According to Statistics Netherlands' quick estimate, inflation in the Netherlands was 2,7% in March, compared to 2,4% in February. Compared to the previous month, prices increased by 0,7%. Energy, including motor fuels, was 6,5% more expensive in March than in March 2025, whereas there was no year-on-year increase in energy prices in February. Inflation for the food, beverages, and tobacco group was 2% year-on-year (1,4% in February). According to the European calculation method, inflation in the Netherlands amounted to 2,6% in March.

Gas reserves extremely low
The gas price appears to be stabilizing at the current high level. The price on the TTF futures exchange is €53,30 per megawatt-hour at the time of writing. Last Wednesday, it was €52,82 per MWh.

Dutch gas reserves are currently only 5,15% full. A year ago, the fill rate on this date was 21,1%. The new filling season begins tomorrow. The Dutch Cabinet is not worried. "The global market for LNG is very flexible, which means that even in a prolonged conflict scenario, it remains possible to source sufficient LNG at higher prices to fill gas storage facilities," the Cabinet states in a recent letter to Parliament.

Stroom
The daily average on the Epex spot market varied last week between €42,25 per MWh on March 25 and €121,24 today (March 31).