Analysis Energy
US blockade pushes fuel prices further into sharp focus
The Strait of Hormuz continues to play a key role in the development of energy prices. The blockade of the strait announced by Trump brings new risks. According to IEA chief Fatih Birol, the supply crisis is not yet fully reflected in the oil price. This implies that oil prices will rise even further.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude ended Friday at $95,20. On Monday, the price rose due to the US blockade but remained below $100. In recent weeks, peaks of over $112 per barrel have also been seen. At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, April 14), the oil price has dropped slightly again to $97,65. Still a high level compared to around $60 in early 2026.
Diesel is also taking a step back: from €184,91 on Monday to €176,30 per 100 liters starting from 4.000 liters (LTO member price) today.
The two-week ceasefire was announced a week ago. Negotiations between the US and Iran regarding how to proceed have failed for the time being. Meanwhile, Iran continues to determine who is, and especially who is not, allowed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Trump decided that the US itself would block Iranian ports and a portion of the strait starting yesterday (Monday, April 13).
However, that does not seem very effective so far, if we are to believe the reports. The BBC reports that at least four Iran-affiliated ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz today. Two of them reportedly called at an Iranian port as well. Iran, in turn, has threatened that no port in the Gulf region is safe if Iranian ports are blockaded.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for oil will fall by 80.000 barrels per day this year due to the war in Iran. Global oil production fell by 10,1 million barrels per day in March to 97 million barrels per day, the IEA states in its latest oil market report published today.
In early April, an average of approximately 3,8 million barrels of crude oil, gas, and refined products were transported through the Strait of Hormuz per day, compared to 20 million barrels per day in February. Some of this is being transported via alternative routes. In total, 13 million fewer barrels per day are being exported. "Resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains the key factor in relieving pressure on energy supplies, prices, and the global economy," the agency stated.
Supply crisis
Bloomberg reports that IEA chief Fatih Birol has said that oil prices do not yet reflect the severity of the unprecedented supply crisis caused by the war with Iran, but that this will soon be the case. He warns that more than 80 power plants have been damaged and that recovery could take up to two years.
The gas price is also being influenced by the latest developments surrounding the war in Iran. At the time of writing, the current price is €44,35 per megawatt-hour on the TTF futures market. That is higher than before the weekend (€43,64 per MWh), but lower than Monday (€46,41 per MWh). A stop-and-go decline has also been observed from the recent high of March 16, when the gas price stood at €61,81 per MWh.
The mild weather is currently working to our advantage, resulting in lower demand for heating. Europe sources primarily liquefied natural gas from Norway and LNG from the US, although some also comes from Qatar. India and China purchase much more LNG from Qatar and are therefore affected more directly. Ultimately, it is also about the highest bidder. Consequently, Europe must compete with Asian countries to replenish its gas reserves. Gas stocks are low at the start of the filling season. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the EU fill rate is currently 29,5%, while Dutch gas reserves are 6,2% full (the lowest fill rate in the EU).
Incidentally, as of this week, ICE has extended trading in gas futures and options on the TTF from 10 to 22 hours a day. This is to bring the futures contracts more in line with other platforms such as Henry Hub and JKM, which were already open 22 hours a day.
Electricity
The daily average for electricity on the Epex Spot (day ahead) fluctuated last week between €59,11 per MWh on April 11 and €132,45 per MWh today. There are no negative quarter-hourly electricity prices these days.
Linda van Eekeres
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