Special Energy
New energy crisis exposes vulnerability
The recent tensions in the Middle East show how quickly the energy market can shift and how significant the economic consequences are. Entrepreneurs in the agricultural sector feel this directly in their wallets, and there is considerable uncertainty regarding the future development of prices.
The impact is broad. Diesel, on which virtually all tractors and other agricultural machinery run, is at historically high levels. Fertilizer prices are rising because key fertilizers come from the Middle East and because gas is required for production. Naturally, the high gas price is also affecting the horticultural sector, and higher fuel prices are also impacting transport costs. Furthermore, due to the share of gas in the electricity mix, peaks in electricity prices occur more frequently when there is little wind and solar energy. This can have consequences for the costs of items such as storage, ventilation, and milking robots, but this depends heavily on the amount of renewable energy an entrepreneur generates themselves.
The initial approach of this article would be: Is the energy crisis over, or is volatility the new normal? Note: that was before February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel started a war against Iran, thereby looming a new energy crisis. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since then, and energy installations in the region have been damaged. This raises the question: what must we do to ensure an energy supply in the future should a new crisis arise?
During the last energy crisis, a war also played a role. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, resulted in poor availability of Russian gas and a massive spike in prices. Several other factors had already been driving up gas prices since mid-2021, such as a recovery in demand following the coronavirus period and tight supply. Gas prices rose dramatically, peaking at €349,87 per MWh on August 26, 2022. We have not seen such extreme peaks this time (yet).
The oil price also rose at the beginning of the war in Ukraine. On March 6, 2022, it stood at $130 per barrel.
First dependent on Russian gas, now on American LNG
Russian gas was banned due to the war in Ukraine, and Russia has since made way for the US as Europe's largest gas supplier.
One advantage is that there is less demand for gas for heating at this time of year, but gas stocks must also be replenished for the coming winter. Gas stocks are historically low at the start of the filling season. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the EU fill rate is currently 30,4%, while Dutch gas stocks are 7,7% full. That is the lowest fill rate in the EU. The new filling season began on April 1, but the incentives to replenish gas stocks are lacking due to high gas prices. Moreover, the closure of the Groningen field makes the Netherlands more dependent on imports. Europe primarily sources gas via pipelines from Norway and LNG from the US, although some also comes (or came) from Qatar. Countries like India and China buy much more LNG from Qatar and are therefore affected more directly. Consequently, Europe must compete with Asian countries to replenish its gas stocks.
War can have lasting effects for another two years
Where the Iran war is having a more extreme impact is on oil prices. Roughly one-fifth of all oil traded worldwide normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman. According to figures cited by the Cabinet in a letter to Parliament, the EU is 97% dependent on imports for crude oil, and approximately 12% of this import flow is currently unavailable. Here, too, competition on the global market means that a portion of regular imports may be diverted elsewhere.
At the start of this year, the oil price stood at around $60 per barrel, and due to overproduction, a decline seemed more likely than an increase. How different the situation is now. Ample availability has given way to scarcity. On March 30, the oil price reached a peak of $112,78 per barrel. The price has dropped significantly, but at over $95 per barrel, it remains at a high level.
Diesel prices have risen more sharply than crude oil. The scarcity is felt more acutely there because there is less refining capacity for it in Europe, it is used on a large scale by transport, industry, and agriculture, and there are few alternatives available. The price even rose above €205 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters, LTO member price). Currently, at over €167, it is considerably lower, but still expensive.
Even if the war were to end now and no new facilities were hit, it could take a long time for prices to return to their 'old' levels. IEA chief Fatih Birol spoke to Bloomberg about two years, given that more than eighty installations have been damaged. According to him, the current high prices do not even reflect the severity of the supply crisis yet.
Threat from within
In the Netherlands and Europe, we may not only face external crises affecting our supply and prices, but we may also face threats or sabotage closer to home. A very recent report from March 2026, commissioned by Topsector Energie/Energy Innovation NL, contains 32 recommendations from experts to accelerate the process of making the Dutch and European energy supply more independent and secure.
The tone of the report "Autonomous and Safe: How the Netherlands Can Strengthen Its Energy Position" is quite alarmist. The report's foreword was written by former Commander of the Armed Forces Rob Bauer. "A stable energy supply contributes to our deterrence and thus helps to prevent war and conflict. And should we be attacked anyway, it will help us to win as quickly as possible. Soldiers win battles, but economies win wars. Without a stable energy supply, the Netherlands simply cannot successfully weather this period of great instability. This razor-sharp report shows *how* the Netherlands must do that. After reading it, no one can say anymore that they did not know how vulnerable we are and what needs to be done to strengthen our energy position," writes the former Commander of the Armed Forces.
Dependence on imports
The Netherlands' dependence on Russian energy has fallen sharply since the invasion of Ukraine. According to CBS figures, this accounted for 21% in 2021, while in 2024 it was only 3%. However, we have become more dependent on American oil and gas, rising from 3% to 24%. After the US, Norway is the most important oil supplier for the Netherlands. Furthermore, more oil was imported from Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Guyana in 2024. The Netherlands has become more dependent on gas from abroad since 2015. The largest increase was seen up to 2020. In 2024, the greatest dependence was on the US (LNG), closely followed by Norway (natural gas).
Experts have labeled gas import dependency as more problematic than oil. According to one of the experts who contributed to the report, Rene Peters, Business Director Gas Technology at TNO, the Netherlands' goal should be to be dependent on a single country for LNG imports for no more than 20%. Strategic Energy Issues Advisor Edwin Edelenbos indicates in the report that the Dutch import gap was only 20% to 25% around 2010. That is now 75% to 80%. "That is largely due to the closure of the Groningen field and other Dutch gas extraction policies. But the fact remains that Europe as a whole cannot meet its own energy needs either."
One of the 32 recommendations is to accelerate the energy transition. However, this requires strengthening the electricity grid. Nuclear energy is a way to become more energy independent, but it is an expensive solution that takes a lot of time. Experts also recommend building up more strategic reserves. Not only of oil and gas, but also of critical raw materials, semi-finished products, and spare parts. "To reduce import dependency on raw materials, we must build up strategic reserves in consultation with the industry. We need more policy on this," says Louise van Schaik, research coordinator for critical raw materials at the Clingendael Institute, in the report.
The Dutch Cabinet also concludes in a letter to Parliament dated April 20, 2026, that the situation in the Middle East shows that 'we must become less dependent on fossil fuels, thereby being structurally less exposed to energy supply shocks'. The Cabinet refers to this as 'resilience'. According to the Cabinet, this should be sought, on the one hand, in measures that reduce energy demand, and on the other, in the transition to non-fossil energy. "This reduces dependence on energy from other countries. This protects households and businesses against energy supply shocks and makes our country more resilient in an increasingly fragmented world order, both in terms of trade and security," according to the Cabinet. Various measures are intended to alleviate the situation for households and entrepreneurs. €25 million is being made available for the agricultural and horticultural sector to reduce dependence on energy and fertilizers (for example, from Renure), although according to BBB MP Henk Vermeer, this is a self-serving measure because this money is merely being brought forward.
Meanwhile, agricultural entrepreneurs are already working hard to increase their resilience against energy price shocks. See also the other articles in our energy special for more information.
This article is part of the Energy Theme Special. Read here the other articles within this theme.
Linda van Eekeres
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