Analysis Energy
Strait of Hormuz continues to determine fuel prices
The ceasefire in Iran has been extended, but in practice, the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed. As a result, oil prices remain high. The market also appears to have little confidence in a quick resolution, as both oil and gas prices have continued to rise again since the weekend. Europe is competing with Asia on the market. The presentation of the Port of Rotterdam's first-quarter figures reveals that at least five oil tankers en route to Rotterdam have diverted their course to Asia.
The oil price dipped to $90,38 per barrel last Friday, the lowest price in over six weeks. However, the initial optimism has reversed, as Brent crude has only become more expensive since the weekend. Currently, the price is well above $100 again, standing at $102,83 per barrel at the time of writing.
After a slight price drop, the diesel price is back at approximately the same level as last week. At the time of writing, that is €176,03 per 100 liters for orders of 4.000 liters or more (LTO member price).
"Until the Strait of Hormuz opens and a ceasefire is reached, stress and panic will remain in the market and everything will move volatilely," states Marjolein Brökling, Head of Pricing and Portfolio Management at AgroEnergy, in a webinar today (April 23).
US President Donald Trump has the ceasefire in Iran - that would expire on Wednesday morning (European time) after two weeks - extended indefinitely. However, little progress seems to be being made in the peace negotiations, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not improved.
Yesterday (Wednesday, April 22), Iran fired upon and seized two container ships. The US does not believe the ceasefire has been violated because the ships have no ties to the US or Israel.
There are also twenty or more mines in the strait, writes The Washington Post, citing sources. After a ceasefire, it could take up to six months to clear them. Meanwhile, according to Iranian media, Iran has received the first toll revenues for the strait.
Electricity prices
The peaks and troughs of electricity prices have been more severe since February 28. Due to the share of gas in the electricity generation mix, prices skyrocket when little renewable energy is being generated. Last week, the highest daily average on the Epex spot was €106,24 per MWh and the lowest was €73,64 per MWh.
US increases gas production
Just like with oil, the gas price took a dive to €38,77 per MWh on April 17, the lowest point since March 2. The gas price has also risen every day since Monday and now stands at €44,44 per MWh.
Gas production in the US is being significantly ramped up. The US Energy Agency (EIA) expects that by the end of 2027, the US daily net gas exports will have increased by nearly 30% compared to the end of 2025. Five additional LNG projects are being added to increase production and exports.
Daily US LNG exports to Europe increased by nearly 64% in 2025. Europe thus accounted for 68% of the US export volume. Due to trade tensions, the export volume to China dropped to zero. LNG exports to the Netherlands amounted to 651.134 million cubic feet (18.427 million cubic meters) in 2025, compared to 463.769 million cubic feet (13.125 million cubic meters) in 2024. That is an increase of more than 40%.
AgroEnergy notes in the webinar that competition has increased: "Is such an LNG tanker going to Europe or Asia?" Bröklings expects that this will remain the case for the foreseeable future. Much more is being imported directly from the Middle East due to Asia. Because that import flow has now largely dried up, prices there have risen more sharply.
The Port of Rotterdam's statement regarding the first quarter also shows that there is fierce competition, in this case for oil. Due to higher prices in Asia, at least five tankers en route to Rotterdam have diverted to Asia.
In the Port of Rotterdam's figures for the first quarter, the disruption to traffic caused by the Strait of Hormuz is barely reflected. This is partly because the attack by the US and Israel on Iran took place late in the quarter, on February 28. Rotterdam depends on countries in the Persian Gulf for 10% of its crude oil throughput and 14% of its mineral oil product throughput.
In total, 19 million tonnes (4,4%) of the annual throughput in Rotterdam comes from countries in the Persian Gulf. This mainly concerns crude oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, kerosene from Kuwait, fuel oil from Saudi Arabia, and gas oil from Qatar. LNG from Qatar does not come to Rotterdam. Approximately two-thirds of the LNG handled in Rotterdam comes from the United States, according to the port authority.
"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores how vulnerable global energy flows are," states Boudewijn Siemons, CEO of the Port of Rotterdam Authority. "The effects of this are still only partially visible in the first quarter and could possibly become more apparent in the second quarter."
Linda van Eekeres
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