Peace negotiations between the US and Iran have reached an impasse (again). Due to the lack of prospects for a rapid normalization of freight traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices continue to rise. Even the news that the United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC after nearly sixty years and intends to pump more oil has failed to bring down oil prices. Read more about the development of energy prices.
On April 17, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $90,38 per barrel. High, but at the time the lowest point in six weeks. Since then, the price has only risen, to $111,20 at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, April 28), a price increase of 23%. Compared to the period before the US-Israeli attack on Iraq on February 28, the price has risen by as much as 53%. It should be noted, however, that prior to the war, the risk was already priced in to some extent; otherwise, the difference would be even greater.
The diesel price has been moving more stably since April 23 and currently stands at €177,30 per 100 liters starting from 4.000 liters (LTO member price). At the pump, diesel is currently (slightly) cheaper than petrol again. According to UnitedConsumers, the average national recommended price for Euro95 in the Netherlands is €2,560 per liter, while diesel costs €2,531 per liter.
End of oil cartel?
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is withdrawing from OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1, reports state news agency WamThe country is responsible for approximately 15% of the oil produced by the oil cartel and is considered important to the organization. The country has been a member of OPEC since 1967 (until 1971 as the Emirate of Abu Dhabi). According to analysts, this departure could well signal the end of OPEC.
The country intends to operate more independently and pump more oil. "During our time in the organization, we have made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of everyone. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest requires and on our obligations to our investors, customers, partners, and global energy markets. That is what we will concentrate on in the future," stated the UAE. Following the exit, the country says it will 'continue to act responsibly by gradually and deliberately bringing additional production to market, aligned with demand and market conditions'.
Normally, the news that the UAE intends to bring more oil to the market would have had a depressing effect on the oil price. At the moment, however, the country cannot get rid of the extra oil because the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed. Peace negotiations between the US and Iran have made no progress. Trump's message on his own social media channel, Truth Social, this afternoon that Iran is 'in a state of collapse' and has asked the US to open the Strait of Hormuz is apparently not being taken very seriously. In any case, it has not caused the oil price to drop.
Gas price stable and high
Just like diesel, the gas price has been hovering around the same level since Thursday, April 23. At the time of writing, that is €44,05 per MWh. That is still 40% more than on February 27.
The difference between the highest and lowest daily average on the Epex Spot was large this week. On Tuesday, April 14, the average price was €132,45 per MWh, while on Sunday, April 26, it was €12,95.