Fertilizer shortage could affect prices in summer

Due to long-term energy contracts, the impact of high gas and electricity prices is currently still limited. "In the short term, the pain lies mainly in higher costs for road transport, container prices, and air freight," states ABN Amro. The bank expects that the food sector will also face higher energy prices later this year, when energy contracts expire, as the general expectation is that energy prices will remain high for an extended period due to severe damage to fossil fuel production and transport facilities.

According to ABN Amro, the food industry has reduced its natural gas consumption, adjusted for lower production, by 8%, while electricity consumption has increased by 12%. Despite electrification, natural gas still accounts for 70% of the energy used in the food industry.

Dependence varies significantly by sector. According to CBS data, the flour industry is 89% dependent on natural gas, despite a 24% reduction from 2021 to 2024, whereas slaughterhouses now have a share of 42% after reducing gas consumption by 9%.

Because there is now less of a correlation between high gas and electricity prices, unlike during the energy crisis of 2022, companies that have electrified are benefiting from the relatively lower electricity prices, according to the report.

Limited financing options for electrification
The overloaded power grid is naturally a major obstacle to the further electrification of businesses, but ABN Amro sees another significant impediment: limited financing options. "Companies in the food industry invest in new machinery only once every ten to twenty years. Sustainable alternatives often have a longer payback period than conventional natural gas installations, partly because the natural gas infrastructure is already in place, and sustainable options are more expensive and technically less robust. To still choose the sustainable alternative, it is necessary for companies to have long-term sales guarantees. This is at odds with the reality in the food industry, where sales contracts often
will only be concluded for one or two years." As a result, the 
According to the bank, the food industry will remain dependent on 'the vagaries of the natural gas market' for the time being.

Food prices are rising
In the report, ABN Amro also briefly addresses food prices. In 2025, the FAO Food Real Price Index (international prices of agricultural commodities, adjusted for inflation) remained unchanged. The index rose slightly in the first months of this year. The bank expects that 'this upward trend will accelerate further, given the war with Iran, which will influence prices due to disruptions in the fertilizer supply chain and increased energy prices'. Dutch food inflation is also expected to rise during 2026.