Heavy chicks and Polish production drive down prices

Recently, Polish processors in particular have been ramping up production rapidly, and slaughter weights in the Netherlands are at a high level. Consequently, price pressure appears to be driven primarily by a larger supply of meat. Market participants report that poultry meat exports are also under pressure as a result of the war in the Middle East.

Growing supply is currently coming from multiple sources. After Polish production was kept in check by bird flu for several years, Polish slaughterhouses stepped on the gas in the first quarter. The stable production level in 2025 appears to have been a temporary halt to the growth ambition. Recently, production volumes in the country have been rising very rapidly. Because production is also growing elsewhere in Europe and slaughter weights are at a very high level, supply exceeds demand.

European production grew, Poland accelerates
European poultry meat production has continued to rise by a few percent annually over the past few years. In 2025, the total volume of poultry meat (including ducks and turkeys) amounted to 14,1 million tonnes, about 4% more than in 2024. Production increased slightly in almost all countries, but the production increase in Spain in particular, with a volume growth of around 9%, brought a substantial additional quantity of poultry to the market (+130.000 tonnes).

Polish poultry meat production (whole carcasses + meat parts including ducks and turkeys) even rose by 7,3% in the first quarter of 2026. While a modest decline was recorded in January 2026, the situation was clearly different in the subsequent period. In February and March, the volume of poultry meat was substantially higher, with increases of 13% and 14% respectively. This is evident from figures from the Polish Statistical Office (Statistics Poland).

As a result, around 30.000 to 40.000 tonnes of extra poultry have recently entered the market monthly, which is roughly half of the monthly Dutch production of poultry meat.

Although the Polish production volume also reflects the volume of duck and turkey, their share in the (growth) figures is limited. Besides broilers, the focus is primarily on the production of turkey meat. In 2025, the monthly production of turkey meat amounted to approximately 30.000 tonnes per month, accounting for over 10% of the total.

Dutch market participants feel pressure from high weights.
Dutch market participants indicate that the current pressure on prices is indeed a consequence of a growing supply of poultry meat. At the same time, it is noted that chicken consumption remains at a very respectable level despite the increased consumer prices in recent years. 'Demand is not the problem at the moment, but rather the ample supply of meat, partly due to the very high slaughter weights.' It is indicated that the average slaughter weight has risen to well over 3,1 kilos per chick, resulting in a significantly increased volume of meat to be sold: 'An increase to over 2,8 kilos already means almost 5% extra. The current weights of up to 3 kilos have an even greater effect.'

In addition, attention is also drawn to the continued genetic advancement in fast-growing varieties elsewhere in Europe: 'Favorable weather and growing genetic potential continue to increase production volume elsewhere in Europe'.

Import volumes stable, exports under pressure due to Middle East conflict
Slaughterers also indicate that poultry meat exports are under pressure. The unstable situation in the Middle East is primarily to blame for this. Figures from the European Statistical Office also show that volumes declined in the first few months. Meanwhile, imports of poultry meat from outside the European Union remain fairly stable. In January and February, import volumes stood at 90.000 and 77.000 tonnes respectively. This was at virtually the same level as in 2025.