Impending energy shortages in the near future

Energy shortages in the near future could be the result of the layoffs now taking place in the energy sector and the lack of new plans for the future. This lack of investment is directly related to the decline in total energy consumption due to the corona crisis by up to 20-25% compared to last year.

CO2 emissions will probably decrease by at least a quarter this year. This is evident from figures from Rabobank and calculations from the Central Planning Bureau (CPB). This would mean that, thanks to the significant decrease, the Dutch government will at least this year meet the CO2 emission reduction requirements imposed by the judge due to the Urgenda case.

Depending on economic speed
Experts assume that the worst economic consequences of the corona crisis are yet to come. The decline in turnover as a result of the economic crisis will probably continue at least until the last quarter of 2020. If that expectation comes true, the scenario will come into effect, with the decrease in emissions, including other incidental factors, increasing to 15 to 17,5 Mton CO2 equivalents in 2020. This would represent a decrease of 27 to 29% compared to 1990. calculated by the CPB.  

In a more favorable scenario, at least for the economy, where the crisis mainly affects the current second quarter of 2020 and the recovery starts from the third quarter, the CPB estimates the decrease in emissions in 2020 at 6 to 7 Mton CO2. The CPB emphasizes that both scenarios are surrounded by many uncertainties and are not based on complete calculations.

Negative energy prices
The sharp drop in CO2 emissions explains why trading in CO2 emission rights has also suffered a major blow, although the market has recovered from an initial price plunge of unprecedented proportions. There is no form of energy, or direct derivative thereof, that has not fallen sharply in value. Not even sustainably generated energy. This year the yield of solar panels is record high and it will remain 'solar panel weather' for the time being. There is therefore a continued risk of negative daily prices for sustainably generated energy, due to extra supply and less demand than normal.

Following the example of oil and sustainably generated energy, the price of natural gas could actually become negative in the coming week, as natural gas storage in Europe is becoming increasingly full and gas consumption will most likely decrease in the coming weeks due to the approaching summer. 

The price of diesel has remained stable in recent weeks at around €0,85 per litre, excluding VAT and including member discount. No major changes in oil prices are expected in the short term, although the trend is positive now that the economy is gradually returning to higher speed.