This year, the global energy demand is expected to decline by 6%, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). That is the biggest drop since World War II.
The calculated CO2 emissions are probably almost 8% lower. 2020 initially headed for a record in energy consumption, breaking the limit of 100 million oil barrels per day. However, in the period between mid-March and mid-May 2020, oil demand fell to 2012 levels: less than 90 million barrels per day.
The international gas markets were also hit hard and lost about 4%, according to the IEA. Twice as much as during the international financial crisis of 2008-2009. The decline in gas demand in Europe is relatively large at 7% compared to gas markets in other parts of the world.
Key role China
The Chinese energy demand appears to be the least affected by the early blow, although the loss of international demand for some of the Chinese export products has also had an effect. The Belt & Road project between Europe and China, also known as the New Silk Road, could come under pressure as affected countries struggle to repay loans and the political impact on China grows.
Phasing out support measures
Whether the economic recovery that has started since mid-May, when the first relaxation of the corona measures took place, will continue depends on controlling the number of daily corona infections and the development of medicines.
Food & Agri director Carin van Huët of the Rabobank says about the cautious economic recovery in the latest forecast report for the third quarter of 2020: "Sectors that show a positive turnover development are the exceptions. Now that we are a few months further on, it becomes even clearer that the corona crisis creates an economic recession."
According to Van Huet, it is thanks to the measures taken by entrepreneurs, government, landlords, suppliers and banks that no large-scale bankruptcy wave is yet visible. Rabobank advises the government not to end the support measures in one go, to prevent entrepreneurs from being left behind in a depression. Van Huet: "Together, we must facilitate a gradual transition to a society in which it is possible to keep a distance and in which there is sufficient space to do business."
Full recovery out of the picture this year
Given this forecast, it is not likely that the energy market will fully recover from the corona crisis in the third and fourth quarters. After all, it is a law that the energy market moves along with economic developments. The more economic growth, the higher the energy consumption and vice versa.
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