Politics colors the energy market

Will most renewable energy in the Netherlands come from offshore wind turbines in the future? Or will there be extra nuclear energy? The approaching elections prompt many plans for the climate transition. But the price of CO2 credits has fallen this week.

The hourly price of electricity also temporarily showed a huge peak again this week. However, analysts expect calm to return to the electricity market. This is due to the wind forecast. Because the total installed capacity of wind turbines at sea and on land is greater than that of solar panels and in the coming weeks there will be a moderate to strong westerly wind almost every day. A minimum supply of renewable electricity is therefore virtually guaranteed.

Oil price falls
Due to the fear of a new corona wave, similar to this spring's pandemic, the oil price is under pressure. Not much more than € 0,85 per liter is paid for agricultural diesel. The gas market has remained stable since the price collapsed this spring after the corona pandemic, following the oil price. This week, as much gas was consumed in the Netherlands as in May, when summer had yet to begin. No problems are expected with the supply. The demand logically increases because of the calendar month. But the falling oil price is putting pressure on gas prices.

CO2 rights trading speculative
At the moment, the trade in CO2 rights on the energy market is the most dynamic. Despite the stricter CO2 reduction targets of the European Union, the price of rights fell from 30 to €25 in recent weeks. Traders are collecting the profit of the last few weeks, when the price of CO2 rights had just risen from 25 to €30.

Trading in CO2 emission allowances is particularly influenced by political decisions, as the instrument was created by the European Union. In the agricultural sector, there is increasing interest in the revenue model that can arise from this CO2 rights trade, if CO2 is captured in the soil. The Rabobank looks like bread.

New life for nuclear energy?
It is not exactly clear whether the discussion sparked by the policy memorandum of VVD Minister Wiebes of Economic Affairs on the future of nuclear energy will also affect pricing. If it comes at all from extra energy supply from nuclear power plants, it will take years before that happens. The voting ratio in the House of Representatives on this subject shows a 50/50 vote ratio. The government parties D66 and ChristenUnie voted along with the opposition, which is firmly opposed to the upscaling of nuclear energy, after this form has been slowed down for years. This has also happened in the countries around us, especially in Germany.

The French nuclear power plants play an important role in the energy market, but there too there is increasing social resistance to nuclear energy. The disaster at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011, in the middle of the country's most important agricultural area, is still fresh in our memories.

The upcoming elections in the Netherlands cast their shadows ahead, including on the energy market. Although the direct influence on the trade in oil, gas, electricity and coal is minor. D66 presented its draft election program last Sunday, in which offshore wind energy is a very important factor in the climate transition. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, which presented the National Environmental Vision (NOVI) 2020 monitor this week, also assumes a rapidly increasing concentration of wind energy at sea. At present, the capacity of onshore wind turbines is even greater than that at sea.

Solar parks 13% total solar energy
The NOVI opts for a preferential order for solar panels on roofs and facades of buildings. The share of onshore solar parks is 13% of the total installed capacity of solar panels. However, in the period from 2018 to 2019, 'large-scale solar on the field' increased slightly more (68%) than 'large-scale solar on the roof' (60%), and even more than small-scale solar on the roof (38 %).

The province of North Brabant has the largest capacity for generating solar power of all provinces in 2019 (1.142 megawatts). This is also where the largest 'sun on the roof' capacity in the Netherlands is located (494 megawatts on a large scale and 553 megawatts on a small scale 'sun on the roof'). After North Brabant, the province of Gelderland has a large number of small-scale and large-scale 'sun on the roof', followed by the Randstad provinces of North Holland and South Holland. The province of Groningen has by far the largest area of ​​solar parks, with a capacity of 219 megawatts.

Netherlands red lantern carrier
With 7,4% in 2018 of all European countries, the Netherlands is the furthest away from the European agreed target for renewable energy. EU countries with many hydropower plants, such as Sweden, Austria and Portugal, score the highest percentage of renewable energy in total energy consumption. 

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