Continued positive news about corona vaccines has led to oil and gas prices rising this week, but the soaring price of electricity is even more striking.
The price of agricultural diesel has passed the limit of €0,90 per liter (excluding VAT, including member discount) for the first time since July this year. But the price of crude oil seems to be stabilizing between $45-50 a barrel.
Optimism about the imminent start of the coronavirus vaccination, combined with oil supply regulation by OPEC, is pushing prices towards pre-coronavirus levels in March this year. The Chinese economy is running at full speed thanks to the lack of a new corona wave in Asia, which is also supporting the oil price. As a result, the price of coal has also risen sharply this week.
Stabilizing oil and gas price
It is unlikely that the oil price will actually rise in the short term to a level of $50-60 per barrel of crude oil and agricultural diesel at prices above 1 euro per liter. It must first become clear when vaccination will actually make a difference. A negative scenario, with a third corona wave next spring, cannot be ruled out and in times of economic recession the oil price is normally under pressure.
The gas price rose cautiously this week in line with the oil price, but there is ample supply of liquefied natural gas from North America. Even if it is slowly getting colder, the gas price, just like the oil price, is unlikely to see further price increases in the short term. An old-fashioned King Winter raid with freezing weather both night and day does not appear in the long-term forecast, even though the barometer is high and the start of meteorological winter appears on the calendar on December 1.
Hardly any wind energy
All the more remarkable is the rapidly rising price of electricity this week. Due to the calm weather, the supply of wind energy has largely disappeared and solar energy production is never a factor at this time of year. Even though the sun shines relatively much this month considering the time of year. There is a good chance that the calm, relatively mild winter weather with the occasional low sun and little wind will continue in the coming weeks and the electricity price will remain relatively high. Alternative sources of (renewable) energy apparently no longer play a major role in the price formation of electricity.
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