Analysis Energy
Major fluctuations in the supply of green energy
The electricity market is dominated by large fluctuations. The supply of electricity from wind and solar is difficult to control and this is reflected in the market. The oil market is characterized by stability. Good and bad news has little influence on the price at the moment.
The oil price has remained stable this week. The news from OPEC+ late last week that production has been revised downwards has hardly affected the market. The price of Brent oil continues to fluctuate around $63 a barrel. Positive and negative factors balance each other and in the short term the balance does not seem to tip to either side.
A new diplomatic wind is blowing through Biden
The market is closely watching negotiations between the US and Iran on a nuclear deal. Trump ended in 2018 participation in the 2015 accord between Iran and 6 countries that agreed to relax sanctions against Iran, provided the country let go of its nuclear ambitions. President Biden wants to reinvigorate the accord and negotiations began this week in Vienna. The chance of a quick deal is estimated to be low, but any indication that a deal is imminent will lead to a fall in the oil price, according to analysts.
Just like the oil price, the diesel price will also remain constant this week. The week started with €101,02 per 100 liters with deliveries from 4.000 liters. Today (Friday 9 April) diesel costs slightly less at €100,91 per 100 litres.
US produces more biofuels
US biofuel production reached its highest level in 3 months in the last week of March. That's according to data released this week from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Production rose to an average of 975.000 barrels per day. The ethanol plants in the Midwest of the US account for by far the largest share of production with an average daily production of 929.000 barrels.
Despite the upturn in production, stocks of bioethanol are at their lowest point in 4 months. The stock stood at 2 barrels on April 20,642, according to the EIA. Since November 13, there was not so little ethanol in stock. And that while less has been exported. In February, the US exported 101,7 million gallons (3,8 million barrels) of ethanol. That is 38% less than in January. In February 2020, 194,2 million gallons were still exported.
Instability characterizes the electricity market
The price for electricity has fallen over the Easter weekend. On Monday (April 5), the EPEX was trading at €10,19 per MWh. A day off in combination with a lot of wind caused an imbalance in the electricity market. There was even talk of a negative price for several hours. In the following days, the electricity price has risen and is today (Friday 9 April) at €55,55 per MWh. The big imbalance has remained this week. This is an inescapable consequence of the growing share from weather-related energy sources
According to the weather reports, the wind will decrease this weekend and there will be showers. This is unfavorable for wind turbines and solar panels. As a result, less wind and solar energy is coming onto the market. As a result, the electricity price will probably rise further, but the CO2 emission price is an important factor.
smart charging
To improve stability on the electricity grid, energy company Vattenfall and charging station operator MRA-Elektrisch started a trial last year to charge electric vehicles green. Smart software controls the charging stations for electric cars in such a way that peaks and troughs in the power supply are used to the maximum. Measurement results published this week show that 96% of motorists can fully charge their vehicle. The other 4% charge an average of 17 kWh, which corresponds to approximately 100 kilometres.
"It is certain that this smart way of green charging works", says Pieter Looijestijn, project manager charging infrastructure at MRA-Elektrisch in a press release. "The example project therefore gives us the confidence to activate smart charging together with Vattenfall at all suitable charging stations in the region." The contract between MRA-Elektrisch and Vattenfall has therefore been extended until 2026 after the successful trial.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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