Financial

For almost a year, the Labour government was well on its way to rebuilding trust in British politics. In recent days, however, a veritable soap opera has unfolded in the House of Commons. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and the pound are the biggest victims.

On July 9, next Wednesday, the period in which Donald Trump reduced import tariffs for the European Union from 20% to 10% will end. According to The Guardian and Financial Times, Trump is now threatening import duties of 17% on food and agricultural products.

Dutch purchasing managers suddenly became a lot more optimistic in June. The Nevi index, which measures the mood among Nevi members, rose from 49,0 in May to 51,2 in June. That is quite a considerable increase for a month. The explanation also sounded quite positive; there was talk of a broad improvement in confidence. Given the tense geopolitical situation and the uncertainty surrounding the American import duties, the increased confidence is quite remarkable.

The sharp dollar decline works out quite well for Dutch households. All sorts of articles can become a lot cheaper. Expressed in euros, the price of American articles decreases and Asian export companies know their way to Europe.

Oil prices are plummeting as it becomes clear that US bunker bombs are not leading to an escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, the lukewarm reaction on the currency market suggests it is too early to declare real peace.

I have rarely heard a central bank president say so often that he does not know everything as precisely as during the latest press conference of Fed boss Jay Powell. While President Trump has been demanding rate cuts for a long time, the Fed is waiting for what is to come. And Powell does not know what that will be. He referred to other economic forecasters and noted that they do not come to very different conclusions than the Fed.

The US dollar has been in the corner of the pack in recent weeks, and the euro is profiting from this. Even rising tensions in the Middle East and a pause by the Federal Reserve are not changing this.

The victory of conservative Karol Nawrocki in the Polish presidential election has left the zloty remarkably cold. However, it could well be that the result will have a long-term effect on the currency world.

Britain’s trade deal with the United States is getting all the attention, but in the long run, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s deal with India is more important for Britain’s growth prospects. Meanwhile, the pound is creeping higher again.

The US central bank has not succumbed to Trump's pressure and is keeping interest rates the same (for now). In the meantime, the US and China are seeking rapprochement this weekend, for the first time since the trade war unleashed by the US president. And are Chinese goods becoming cheaper here? Linda van Eekeres discusses this and more with Edin Mujagić, macro-economist and manager at investment fund Hoofbosch.

Last week, US GDP showed a slight contraction in the first quarter. We could already see that the figures were seriously distorted. US importers and their suppliers were doing their best to get as much stuff into the US as possible before Trump’s tariffs would go into effect.

The good trend that ForFarmers already had last year continued in the first quarter of 2025. The listed animal feed company again sold more (compound) feed and did so partly on an autonomous basis. In a market that is characterized by shrinkage, that is a great achievement. CEO Pieter Wolleswinkel is therefore delighted and speaks of a strong quarter that is in line with the ambition of the company.