While we have all emptied the rain gauge in the Netherlands, added up the numbers and eagerly look forward to spring weather, it has already arrived in Eastern Europe. That is two to four weeks earlier than average. A start can be made with the sowing of spring cereals. Are Russia and Ukraine again heading for a record harvest?
The most recent weather data from the USDA shows that temperatures in Eastern Europe are on average 6 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. In most regions all snow has now melted. Due to the significantly higher temperatures, crops have come out of hibernation two to four weeks earlier.
In southern Ukraine and Russia, warm weather has ensured that wheat is picking up the growing season quickly. The situation is also favorable in terms of soil moisture. Dry conditions are only observed around the Black Sea coast. It is not only warm in Russia and Ukraine. Temperatures are also above average in Germany, Poland and the Balkans. Oilseed rape and wheat start growing a month earlier. Due to crop growth, sufficient moisture is required. The southeast of Europe has had a relatively dry winter. The winter was also very dry in France. However, that changed at the beginning of March. The moisture shortage has also been temporarily resolved locally in Germany.
Spring days with a temperature between 10 and 15 degrees in Ukraine and Belarus ensure that the sowing of spring grain has started there. On Friday, March 10, the Ukrainian government announced that the first peas, barley and oats had been sown. These are very sporadic activities.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the total arable area this season amounts to 26,8 million hectares. That is the same as last season. Grain accounts for 14,4 million hectares. 54 percent of the total. A total of 7,2 million hectares of spring crops are grown, of which 2,4 million hectares are grains.
What the Russian agricultural sector will do is still unknown. The country's fertilizer supply is 6 percent higher than last year, which is expected to boost grain yields. However, that is a shot in the dark, because the relationship between fertilizer use and the final yield is very weak. The availability of sufficient water is most decisive for the final crop yield.
News agency Reuters writes that the Russian government is considering selling part of its 4 million tons of grain stock to make room for the new harvest. Exports from the country are slow. This is mainly due to an increasing value of the ruble. Stock market analysts are therefore wondering when a sudden sell-off will start.