What's the weather doing?
Mars bulletin shows half the truth
The European Commission's Mars bulletin reports that crop growth in Europe is, on average, smooth. A warm spring takes care of that. A lack of precipitation throws a spanner in the works locally. However, that is only half the truth. The impact of the cold weather is still unknown.
The bulletin uses dates from April 1 to 18. So for the widespread night frost in Europe. The impact of this has not been included in the assessment. The bulletin does mention that rain is desperately needed to stimulate crop growth. The cold weather mainly has an impact on the development of rapeseed. The situation is uncertain. the revenue figures are based on historical data and not on current data. So, pluses in yields can quickly turn into reductions.
Benelux dry
Belgium, the south of the Netherlands, Luxembourg and northeastern France are designated as drought areas. It is also very dry in Italy. The south and east of Germany, southern Poland and Romania record average temperatures that are considerably lower than the average. It is also cold in the Balkans.
Wheat yields are up 0,5 percent compared to last month. The Mars forecast is for a hectare yield of 5,79 tons per hectare on average. That is a plus of 3,3 percent compared to the five-year average. For barley this is 1,5 percent. Rapeseed scores a minimal plus. Sugar beet plus 3,7 percent. For potatoes, it sticks to plus 3 percent, or 33,4 tons/ha.
Worries about the north of France
Satellite data shows that crop growth has been good in the first half of April. This is due to the above-average temperatures. Significant precipitation is required for the crops to develop further. Concerns are expressed especially about the north of France. It has been dry above average since last autumn, which causes a lot of uncertainty. Since October, the total precipitation is comparable to the historically dry year 1976.
The disease pressure in wheat and barley is high, but easy to control. For rapeseed, which is at the end of flowering, the question is how much damage frost has caused.
100
millimetres
frost problems
The night frost problem is also an issue in Germany, after France the largest rapeseed producer. It is not yet possible to say how great the damage to the crop is. Crop development in March was good, but this weakened in April. The central and western parts of Germany in particular are dry above average. The precipitation deficit has risen to 100 millimeters since the start of this year. The sowing of maize is delayed by the cold weather. Because the crops are in good condition, the grain yield is not feared. Only rapeseed can have a negative effect.
Due to a warm start to the spring, the sowing of sugar beets in Europe went well on average. Almost everywhere the seed was sown earlier than average. This was especially the case in Germany and Poland. France followed later due to excessive precipitation. It is still uncertain what impact the frost has had. In Ukraine and Russia, sowing is done until mid-May. Romania had a later sowing season, due to the amount of rain. Spring started early and warm in the Black Sea area.
Winter crops have turned out well over the winter. A precipitation shortage is not expected to cause any problems. In the south of Ukraine, grain maize has already been sown. However, rain, frost and snow throw a spanner in the works at the end of April. The weather was also very mild in Russia and crop growth is ahead of the average. However, not all major grain regions survived the winter well. Sowing the spring cereals is going smoothly.
Niels van der Boom
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