During the 2018 growing season, the Russian grain harvest may experience a significant correction. This is reported by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Knowing more? Subscribe to 'Granes & Raw Material'.
Russia is once again harvesting enormous quantities of grain this year. This could turn out differently in the 2018 growing season. "Next year's grain harvest could be less than 100 million tons," said Petr Chekmarev of Russia's agriculture ministry. According to the cultivation specialist, the yield depends on the amount of winter grain that is sown and whether it goes into the ground on time.
Winter versus summer grain
"If sowing is done too late, the risk of frost damage is greater," says Chekmarev. "The harvest of winter grain will then be below 45 million tons. Even if the volume of summer grain reaches 50 million tons, you will then be below the total of 100 million tons of grain. Farmers must therefore try to keep this risk as small as possible."
However, there is another factor at play. A larger ending stock is expected during the 2017-2018 marketing season. This is the result of a large grain harvest. This means that the country has enormous stocks, even when yields are disappointing. The number 1 position as an exporter is therefore not in danger, Chekmarev thinks. A fluctuating grain supply is bad for Russia's position as an export country.
Sowing on schedule
There are currently no reasons to assume that the Russian harvest will be significantly lower. According to recent figures from the ministry, 11 million hectares of winter grain had been sown. Good for 62,8% of the expected total. Last year in the same period this was 10,8 million hectares.
Meanwhile, 39,3 million hectares of grain have been harvested, 83,5% of the total. Last year this was slightly more at 41,6 million hectares. Total production, according to government figures, amounts to 120,7 million tons, compared to 109,2 million tons in 2016.
The wheat and barley harvest is approximately 90% complete. Approximately a quarter of all grain corn and soybeans have also been received. The sunflower harvest is at 17%.
Lots of wheat exports
Until September 20, Russia has exported more than 2017 million tons of grain for the 2018-10 season. That is an increase of 34% compared to the same period last year. At that time the volume was 7,83 million tons.
This mainly concerns wheat: 8 million tons. The rest of the volume consists of barley and grain corn. Logistics remain a problem in getting the huge quantities to the ports and out of the country.