The most recent Wasde report, prepared by the US Department of Agriculture USDA, has little in store for boosting grain prices. However, there are also opportunities, but when will they arise?
While the harvest of grain corn and soy is steadily progressing in the United States, it is becoming increasingly clear how the harvest will turn out. If the corn harvest continues at the current high yield level, the global final stock will exceed 200 million tons. That puts pressure on the price.
The USDA increases the yield per hectare in the October report. The total harvest is not growing, because the purchase is also expected to increase. Particularly in the feed segment. Lower yields in Russia and Ukraine are offset by increases elsewhere.
Less soy worldwide
Not much is being done to soy yields in the United States. The total area increases by 283.000 hectares. Ending soy inventory has been reduced by 45 million bushels. The soy harvest worldwide is 600.000 tons lower, at 347,9 million tons. That is thanks to a smaller harvest in Russia and Ukraine. The closing stock decreases by 1,5 million tons, to 96 million tons.
More wheat on global market
The USDA also has 'bearish' news for the wheat market. An increase of 5 million tons is predicted for world supplies. This amounts to over 268 million tons. US stock rises along with a 3% increase. In particular, more durum wheat and hard red spring wheat have been harvested. The wheat harvest in the EU, India, Russia and Canada is all estimated higher by the ministry. That in Australia has been reduced by 1 million tons.
Eyes on South America
Rabobank calls the development of a La Niña in the Northern Hemisphere worrying. If this weather phenomenon occurs during autumn and winter, South America will experience dry conditions. The sowing season has already started very dry in Brazil. Persistently dry weather is unfavorable for crop development. It has actually been very wet in Argentina. The situation there is improving, so sowing work can start.