There has been more positivity in the grain market in the past 2 weeks. The physical market rose and there is more trading on the futures markets. What does this do?
With a wheat yield of 8.700 kilos of wheat per hectare this season, the Netherlands is among the top European producers. With an area of 172.000 hectares, this means a harvest of 1,5 million tons.
We also see ample harvests elsewhere, but decreased areas. The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates a gross grain harvest of 2017 million tons for the 2018/301,7 season: an increase of 4,681 million tons compared to last year.
Export does not happen automatically
European exports are not yet automatic. In the period from October 25 to 31, 372.507 grains were exported (including declarations made before October 25 but not yet processed), of which 86.922 tons of soft wheat and 132.583 tons of barley. In the same period, 500.424 tons of grain were imported, of which 137.525 tons of wheat and 283.601 tons of corn. The European Union (EU) is a net exporter of 2017 million tons of grain in the 18/3,0 season, compared to 8,5 million tons in the same period last season.
Breakthrough
The United States is also struggling with disappointing export figures. This is mainly caused by the stronger dollar, but the successful soy harvest also puts pressure on the price of corn and wheat. Yet analysts are not negative. At least, not about the Matif. Despite the moderate price development in recent times, it is expected that there will be a breakthrough from the price top at €167.