The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced the record wheat harvest today, Thursday 28 December. What other developments were there in the grain markets?
The Russian wheat harvest for the 2017/2018 season has reached 85,5 million tons. Following this, analyst firm SovEcon has increased its wheat export forecast by 500.000 tonnes to 35,5 million tonnes.
Last year the country exported 27,1 million tons of wheat. However, the combination of the weak ruble and transport subsidies means that Russia is currently one of the cheapest suppliers of wheat in the world.
Ukraine important supplier for China
After a warm and humid autumn, winter grains are doing well in Ukraine. This is because it started to freeze later in the year in the grain regions and sufficient snow fell. Barley stocks stood at approximately 1 million tonnes on December 1,74. That is 638.000 tons less than on this date last year.
Approximately 1 million tons of barley were exported from Ukraine in the period between January 30 and November 4,78. This concerns a total value of $700 million (converted €123 per tonne). The country was one of the largest suppliers to China in 2017. That country purchased approximately 8,3 million tons of barley; 80% more than in the same period last year.
China is struggling with bad weather in Argentina
In China, wheat sales are less smooth. The government has continued to sell wheat from state stocks. A few days ago, 153.400 tons were sold at a price of $381,69 per ton (€321 per ton). The country is also experiencing a rise in corn prices. This is partly the result of warm and dry weather in Argentina.
Chinese corn imports decreased by 2017% to 22 million tons until November 2,4. This seems negative, but it is in line with the Chinese policy of reducing inventories. The higher prices for soybeans are also a result of the weather in the South American country. After the United States and Brazil, Argentina is one of the largest producers of soybeans (with 15,5%). Bad weather affects prices worldwide.
India wants to increase import duties
India wants to increase import duties on wheat again. A few weeks ago, the country already increased import duties from 10% to 20%. Despite this increase, more than 1 million tons of wheat were imported, which has a negative effect on local wheat prices. That is why the country wants to further increase import duties.
Export from the EU
In the period between December 6 and 12, 385.635 tons of grain were exported from the European Union (EU). Of this, 259.306 tons were common wheat and 39.462 tons were barley. During the same period, 206.723 tons of grain were also imported, of which 36.040 tons were wheat and 160.410 tons were maize.
The EU is therefore a net exporter of 2017 million tons of grain in the 2018/4,9 season. In the same period last year, that figure was 11,1 million tons of grain.