While the soybean harvest has started in Brazil, expectations for the soybean harvest have been revised upwards. What does this do to the soybean price on the CBoT in Chicago?
Despite the fact that sowing was relatively late due to drought, the Brazilian soy harvest is off to a good start. According to the American consultancy FCStone, the average yield per hectare this year will be 3,2 tons per hectare.
The world's largest soybean exporter is expected to return to high yields, although the 2017 record (114 million tons) is unlikely to be exceeded. The 2018 yield is estimated at 110 million tons.
Adjusted Forecasts
The high yield is partly due to the larger acreage. Large parts of some important soybean production areas, such as Mato Grosso, are cultivated and used for soybean cultivation. This brings the total acreage to 34,9 million hectares. The country is also likely to export more than previously thought. Exports have increased by 1 million tons to 65 million tons. This is still less than last year's export record (68,2 million tons).
Although the broader harvest forecasts caused a small dip in the soybean price on the CBoT last week, it is not continuing. The price has risen this week and closed Tuesday, January 16 at $355,7 per tonne. This is the highest point since mid-December.