Grain exports in the United States (US), Ukraine and Europe are disappointing. Australia also seems to be able to export less. However, this does not apply to Russia.
The export of wheat from the US was particularly notable in the recent period. There was hope for a higher export figure, but in reality it is disappointing. In week 2, a modest 131.000 tons of wheat were exported. This brings the season total to 19,5 million tons. That is 1,5 million tons less than in the same period last season.
Less wheat in Ukraine
A similar sound comes from Ukraine. Here, logistics problems in particular lead to a lower export level, which is 600.000 tons below the volume of the same period in 2016. The export figure for the 2017/2018 season is 11,4 million tons.
Several analysts expect that Ukraine will harvest less wheat next season, despite an increasing acreage and positive weather conditions. This expectation is based on the poor condition of the wheat area, which amounts to 1 million hectares. Analysts expect a total harvest of 25,1 million tons.
Frost in US from the air
In Russia the situation is different. Enough snow has fallen here to protect the grain and provide it with moisture. This means that analysts expect a good wheat harvest. The extreme Arctic cold that gripped the US and Canada has passed its peak.
No major after-effects are expected at this time. However, significant precipitation remains desirable to increase the available stock of soil moisture. Australia is now suffering from extremely high temperatures. Insiders expect this to adversely affect the grain harvest.
Netherlands and Europe
Dutch arable farmers are busy improving their plots. In recent weeks, sugar beets and carrots still had to be harvested. It has not been possible to sow winter wheat on these plots. This sometimes means switching to another crop. The effect this has on the final harvest will become clear this spring.
In the period between January 3 and 9, more than 540.000 tons of grain were exported from the European Union (EU). The volume covers 356.363 tons of soft wheat and 59.708 tons of barley. In the same period, a good 484.000 tons of grain were imported. This mainly concerns corn: 396.000 tons. Based on data from the customs system, the EU is a net exporter of 5,7 million tonnes for the 2017/2018 season. Last season this was 11,9 million tons.
Grain traders have shown strong interest in the corn and wheat tariff quotas of €0 per tonne. The Ukrainian wheat quota of 970.000 tons was exceeded by 37 times and that of maize by even 57 times. This calendar year it is no longer possible to submit an application for the tariff quotas that have been fully used.