Week 11: influence of expected frost small

The CBoT in Chicago is mainly affected by the drought. For example, an official emergency declaration was issued in Kansas, where a lot of wheat is grown. With this declaration, farmers have permission to use water from fish ponds, for example. "Crops will obviously suffer, even if it rains continuously from now on," said a Kansas farmer.

Blockade for long-term recovery
The continued confirmation of high global grain stocks is blocking a prolonged uptick in grain prices. In addition, Europe also suffers a lot from the export violence of the Russians. The supply of cheap grain just keeps coming, despite the fact that the winter is far from over in those regions either.

These factors caused the quotation of milling wheat on the Matif in Paris to move between €157 and €165 per tonne (delivery in March). Most signals seem to have been processed in the market and large swings are therefore not expected.

(Text continues below the chart)After the exchange rate fluctuations, most factors have now been translated into the quotation.

Area and Yield Forecasts
Coceral, the European association of grain traders, expects a European grain harvest of 2018 million tons for 302,5. That is slightly more than last season's 299,9 million tons. This despite an acreage decrease from 306.000 hectares to 55,5 million hectares.

An increase in the grain acreage is expected for the Netherlands, increasing it by 13.000 hectares to 186.000 hectares. Coceral expects a harvest of 1,623 million tons in the Netherlands. This is subdivided into 1,08 million tons of wheat, 374.000 tons of barley, 150.000 tons of maize and 150.000 tons of rye.