The wish of many grain growers may soon come true. The International Grains Council (IGC) has stated that global grain stocks for the 2018/2019 harvest year will fall to their lowest point in 5 years. Which cereal is driving this decline?
In the coming harvest year (2017/2018), the final stock of grain will decrease to zero (-4 million tons to 606 million tons). However, stocks will decline faster in the following harvest year (2018/2019). The IGC foresees a final stock of 560 million tons in that year. This will then be the lowest point in 5 years. Production that year is estimated at 2.087 million tonnes, compared to 2.092 million tonnes in 2017/2018.
No surprises for wheat and soy
The decline is not necessarily caused by wheat. The ending stocks of wheat will increase by 2017 million tons to 2018 million tons in 16/256. One year later (2018/2019), the final stock amounts to 253 million tons, according to the IGC. The closing stocks of soybeans are also declining relatively little. For 2017/2018, the closing stock is estimated at 42 million tons (-5 million tons); to decrease further to 1 million tons 39 year later.
Corn yields
Corn stocks are declining sharply. For the 2017/2018 harvest year, this decreases by 29 million tons to 308 million tons. In 2018/2019, the closing stock will even decrease by 42 million tons to 265 million tons. If the IGC forecast is correct, corn stocks will fall to the lowest point in 5 years. Corn production remains reasonably stable, which means that the decline is caused by increasing consumption.