The Chinese importers of soybeans are currently (the ex-country period) paying record high prices for soybeans from the port of Brazil. This is in response to the reports about the tensions between the United States (US) and China, which seem to be increasing.
China recently announced that American soybeans are a potential target of import duties. This increased the demand for soybeans from Brazil; buying soybeans from Brazil is a stopgap measure for many Chinese buyers. This is to ensure that they can purchase sufficient animal feed. However, the need should not be that great, given that China has enough soybeans in stock.
In addition, rain in Brazil may also have slowed soy trade, contributing to higher prices. The drought in Argentina is boosting global soy prices and also stimulating demand for soybeans elsewhere in the world.
Wait and see attitude
However, there are fewer soybeans available for export because more crushing is required in Brazil. This is due to the strong demand for bio-diesel. A farmer in Mato Grosso (a state bordering Bolivia) told Reuters he believes some growers are holding on to their supplies longer in anticipation of rising prices. This comes as tensions between the US and China escalate.
It is therefore expected that the global soybean markets will rise. However, this is not yet reflected in the listing on the CBoT in Chicago. The tensions in the market have not yet been translated into the listing on the CBoT.