In Germany, the wheat harvest is (expected) as much as 25% lower than last year. This is an important price supporting factor. The first harvest forecasts for the Netherlands and Belgium are now also known.
The question has long been whether the German wheat yield will fall below the critical limit of 20 million tons. The answer became clear on August 1. The Deutsche Bauernverband (DBV) has lowered the yield forecast to 18 million tons, where the yield was more than 24 million tons last year.
An average of about 6 tons per hectare is threshed in Germany, the German association writes. Last year it was 7,7 tons per hectare. The 5-year average is 8 tons per hectare. According to Joachim Rukwied, the chairman of the DBV, the drought is catastrophic for the German grain harvest.
Reliable forecast
Current yield expectations are mainly based on harvest results and are therefore quite reliable. Especially in the North Germany is feeling the effects of the drought. The total grain harvest is 20% lower there, the DBV expects.
According to German grain traders, this could mean that Germany will become an importer of grain. The country is generally the second largest exporter in the European Union (EU) after France. Further north in the EU, the situation is even more worrisome. In Sweden, the drought means that yields are estimated to be 40% lower.
Good yields in the Netherlands
Although wheat yields almost everywhere in Europe stock estimated, the revenues in the Netherlands and Belgium are probably higher than last year. It should be noted that the Netherlands and Belgium have relatively small wheat yields compared to countries such as Germany where the forecasts have been revised downwards.
The first forecasts show that the average yield in the Netherlands is 9 tons per hectare, bringing the total harvest to 1,08 million tons. Where in 2017 that was about 1,05 million tons. In Belgium, the average yield is 8,7 tons, bringing the harvest to 1,88 million tons. In 2017 that was about 1,78 million tons.
Lower Yields Ukraine
Yield expectations are lower not only within the EU, but also in Ukraine yield expectations are lower. The harvest there is now severely hampered by prolonged rainfall, which also causes quality problems.