Wasde: forecasts have fallen further?

At the Matif in Paris the wheat price rally around €211 per tonne and the price also stabilized at around $210 per tonne at the CBoT in Chicago. However, the quotations on the physical market continue to rise.

Although expectations for the wheat harvest in the United States (US) are good, the weather forecast for the next 10 days is unfavorably dry. This means that global wheat and corn supplies are expected to decline (particularly due to problems in Russia, Germany and Germany). Australia), remains unchanged. This causes analysts to expect wheat and corn prices to continue rising.

Reductions in Europe
Strategy Grains expects the common wheat harvest in the European Union (EU) to reach 127,7 million tonnes, up from 141,8 million tonnes in 2017. Although wheat yields in (relatively) small wheat-producing regions such as the United Kingdom (UK) are ultimately quite good, returns in Germany and France are disappointing. Agreste expects a harvest of 35,1 million tons in France, which is 4% less than last year.

The German agricultural cooperatives estimate the winter wheat harvest at 19,2 million tons, compared to 2017 million tons in 24. German importers already bought 800.000 tons of feed wheat from various countries around the Black Sea this summer.

Zwarte Zee
Low yields are expected in the Black Sea area. Figures from the Ukrainian government show that the wheat harvest has so far achieved a yield of 3,74 tons per hectare, compared to 4,1 tons in 2017. This brings the total harvest expected to 24,5 million tons, where that last season it was still 26,2 million tons.

In Russia, the price of wheat is rising sharply, yet the country remains the cheapest supplier of wheat. Russia exported around 3,8 million tons of wheat in July, compared to 1,4 million tons in the same month last year. Russia's wheat yield has been cut again, bringing it to 68,4 million tons. Last year a harvest of 85,9 million tons was achieved.

Corn price drops
The corn price fell from €200 per tonne to €190 per tonne, due to positive expectations for the harvest in the major production areas in the US. Despite the extreme drought and rain, the country is expected to have the third highest yield ever this season.

A larger corn harvest is also expected in Ukraine, compared to last year (+6 million tons). In addition, the EU is expected to have record high corn imports. According to Stategie Grains, this is mainly due to lower wheat yields.

Soy production in US
US soybean production will likely set a record, Bloomberg analysts expect. Soybean prices have been volatile and are now hovering around $325 per tonne (CBoT in Chicago).Corn prices fell slightly after the peak at the end of last week.