Declines dominate the grain market

After those rumors were debunked, most quotes started to decline again. It shows once again that we are dealing with a nervous market, where every rumor affects prices and quotations. However, this decrease is not of great value. This is because the global wheat prices are still 20% higher than in the same period last year.

De futures market for milling wheat on the Matif in Paris fell €4 to €204 per tonne for delivery in September 2018. The quotation for delivery in December 2018 fell to €205,75 per tonne, a decrease of €6,25. The corn futures quote for November 2018 delivery fell by €4,25 to €184,25 per tonne, while the price for January 2019 delivery fell by €5 to €186,50 per tonne.

Positive messages from Russia?
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has positively adjusted the harvest forecast for grain. They now expect a yield of 105 million tons, compared to 135 million tons last season. In addition, Russia remains the cheapest supplier of wheat, which is partly caused by the depreciation of the ruble. However, the quality of the product is less than last season.

The wheat harvest in Ukraine has been harvested and is estimated at 25 million tons, which is 1,6 million tons less than last season. The quality is also less and a large part becomes waste feed wheat used. The total grain harvest in the country is estimated at 60 million tons, 1,3 million tons less than last season.

(Text continues below the chart)The wheat quotation on the Matif in Paris shows a decline again.

On the other hand, it should be noted that exports are going well. From July 1 to August 22, the country exported 4,9 million tons: 2,3 million tons of wheat, 1,2 million tons of barley and 1 million tons of corn. Analysts in Ukraine expect total grain exports to rise to 40 million tons, which is 600.000 tons more than last season.

More rain needed
The demand for barley from the Middle East and China, in combination with the disappointing harvest forecasts, means that barley prices are stable to slightly increasing. The situation in Canada has also improved slightly, due to precipitation. However, more rain is still needed to maintain the situation. Figures show that Russia has exported around 900.000 tons of barley this season, which is almost 10% less than in the same period last season.

There is also negative news for corn prices, as they show a slight decline. While the forecast in the United States has been adjusted negatively. The corn harvest in Brazil and Argentina is currently almost complete and the first forecast for the Argentine harvest (2018/2019 season) is 46 million tons. 

The International Grains Council (IGC) has positively adjusted the world soybean harvest for the 2018/2019 season, resulting in fairly stable quotations. The IGC expects a total harvest of 366 million tons, which is 6 million tons more than last month's forecast. However, with a consumption of 357 million tons, the world stock will increase by 9 million tons to 31 million tons. 

(Text continues below the chart)The quotation for soybeans on the CBoT in Chicago shows a sharp decline. 

What do the export figures show?
13 tonnes were exported in the European Union (EU) between 19 and 650.275 August: 419.207 tonnes of soft wheat and 141.089 tons of barley. During that period, 295.808 tons were also imported: 35.201 tons of wheat and 229.667 tons of corn. So far in the 2018/2019 season, the EU is a net exporter of 1,1 million tons of grain, based on data from the customs system. That is comparable to last season.

In addition, 1 tons of soybeans were imported into the EU in the period from July 19 to August 1,739.595, which is 266.000 tons less than in the same period last year. Brazil is the largest supplier (55,8%), followed by the United States (33,1%).