European wheat harvest continues to decline

The new data from the European Commission shows that total European grain production is estimated at 284,3 million tonnes. That is a reduction of 5% compared to last season and 8% less than the 5-year average.

The wheat crop has suffered the most, resulting in a reduction of 9% compared to last year. Total wheat production in the European Union now stands at 129 million tons.

Wheat and barley are declining
The British agriculture ministry Defra has published figures about the grain harvest in the United Kingdom. This is 5% below last year and compared to the 5-year average, this is a decrease of 4,7%. The volume is estimated at 14,1 million tons, compared to an average of 14,8 million tons. Production of winter and spring barley is 8% lower, with a total volume of 6,6 million tons (compared to 7 million tons on average).

The British advocacy group NFU's own research shows that the wheat yield is 7,7 tons per hectare. It is the first time in 5 years that this level is below 8 tons. A wet spring, followed by a low, dry summer is the reason for this.

Price stable
The December contract on the Matif in Paris closed slightly higher on Monday, October 8 (€203 per tonne). With almost 8.500 contracts converted, only little trading took place. More than 4 contracts were converted on Thursday, October 28.000.

British grain traders also do not expect the published figures to have much influence on price formation. The London Liffe quotation for feed wheat (November delivery) closed slightly lower on October 8 at £179,30 per tonne, which is €203,86. The January contract stands at €206,53.

Physical volume
British traders had expected a volume of 13,7 to 14 million tons. Defra's figures are at the top of this range. It is noted that the physical position is slightly different. The yields are standardized at 14,5% moisture content, while in reality they are often harvested at much lower levels. The exact number of tonnes is a matter of guesswork.