Soy and corn market more exciting than wheat

Although the Matif briefly went to €3 on Monday, December 202,25, the price quickly fell back. At the CBoT in Chicago, the price increase will continue; the wheat price there again comes out at $190 per tonne. An important reason for this is that wheat from the US is finally cheaper than wheat from Russia, partly because the wheat price there is rising.

Wheat exports from the US now appear to be increasing. Although the concerns about lagging exports (-17%) are far from gone.

Drop in Australia harvest forecast
Another factor is that the Ministry of Agriculture in Australia has revised the forecasts for the wheat yield adjusted negatively. The forecast is now for a yield of 17 million tons, compared to 19 million tons in September. The reason for the decline is the drought in the country.

In addition, Coceral again reduced European wheat yields. In September, the forecast still came out at 129,9 million tons, but that has now been reduced to 128,6 million tons. That is considerably less than the 142 million tons of 2017.

Condition of grains in Russia
According to several analysts, the condition of winter wheat in the Black Sea region and Eastern Europe is not good. In Russia in particular, growing conditions are below the 5-year average.

The soy market is currently the most volatile. The price on the CBoT has been rising sharply for days and recently reached a level of more than $335 per ton. That is the highest level since June 2018. The corn price also rose sharply, reaching a price of $147 per tonne.

China's decline is uncertain
The reason for the volatility is that it was decided at the G20 summit that the US and China would enter into a tentative ceasefire and therefore not impose any further trade tariffs. In addition, China has said it is buying 'significant' quantities of agricultural products from the US.

Finally, there is bearish news for the soy market as Brazil gears up for an early harvest of a record high soybean crop.