In the days after Christmas, grain prices are mainly declining, although there were some signs of recovery here and there. This was caused by the disappointing export figures. Still, analysts continue to expect interesting times for the wheat market.
The Matif in Paris has fallen to €203,25 per tonne, mainly because expectations for the Russian wheat harvest have been raised to 72,1 million tonnes. The falling price on the CBoT in Chicago also has an influence on this.
Reduction of wheat harvest in Europe
In the European Union (EU), the wheat harvest (common wheat) was reduced. The European Commission expects a harvest of 128,5 million tons, compared to 142 million tons last year.
Despite this reduction, analysts continue to expect interesting times to come soon in the wheat market. This is because exports from Russia are now declining, because wheat from the country is becoming more expensive.
Imports from China are disappointing
Although the corn price is €178,25 (Matif), a decline is visible in the United States (CBoT), mainly because demand from China remained stable. The expectation was that the country would import more. In addition, the rain in Brazil led to better yield expectations, which also had an effect on the quotations.
This is because Brazil is the biggest competitor in supplying soy to China. Higher soy yields in Brazil caused prices to fall. The shutdown in America also has an effect on raw material prices, partly because no export figures are published.