The monthly MARS report shows that cereal crops in Europe survived the winter well, with little to no frost damage. The plots in the region around the Black Sea also emerge well from the snow.
The winter was up to 4 degrees Celsius warmer than the long-term average, with little frost. It is therefore not surprising that the grain crops survived the winter well. However, some crops, and certainly rapeseed, have suffered from the drought.
Not wet everywhere
The warm period in February allowed growth to start quickly. The rain in March has somewhat eliminated the precipitation deficit for now. Although it remains very dry, especially in the south of Europe: Spain, Italy and Portugal.
The European Commission has increased the average European wheat yield adjusted up to 5,62 tons per hectare (for all grains). That is 2,4% above the 5-year average and compared to last season the plus is 8,3%. For the Netherlands, the Commission expects an increase of 1,5% in revenue compared to last year. The yield is therefore just under 9 tons per hectare.
Oilseed rape hit hard
Only rapeseed recorded a minus. Many crops have been affected by the dry weather and various pests (for example the rapeseed beetle). In Germany, even 25% of the area has been lost, the MARS report states. Spring grains or summer rapeseed are sown here. In France, the area of rapeseed is almost 20% lower. Due to the poor conditions, arable farmers are now choosing to sow maize, or have already sown spring barley.
In Northern France, the month of March has been very wet so far. The European Commission therefore expects a delay in sowing the sugar beets. In that respect, Germany is drier in all areas. The warmer weather in Poland means that all summer grain can probably be sown in the second half of March.
No frost damage
The European Commission's 'frost damage model' shows that this has hardly been a major problem anywhere in Europe. In parts of Ukraine and Russia, the snow has melted quickly due to the warm weather, which is 1 month earlier than normal. The crops are in good shape, but we keep a finger on the pulse. If it remains dry for (too) long, this can hinder crop growth.
Especially in the south of Russia, crops are now developing and field work has started. There is still approximately 20 to 70 centimeters of snow in the central, eastern and northern parts of Russia. However, this snow layer also provides moisture for initial development.
Big harvest coming?
Market agencies and analysts share the view that crops are in good shape. The French government service FranceAgriMer writes that 85% of wheat plots are in good condition. In Germany, a wheat harvest is expected to be 4 million tons above last year's (24 versus 20 million tons).