More corn and less soy at American farmer

The CBoT in Chicago closed sharply lower on Friday, March 29, after the figures were published. The futures market for corn in particular had a hard time. The contract actually decreased by almost 5%, which is the biggest 1-day drop since July 2016.

Area figures
The Ministry of Agriculture expects a considerably larger area of ​​grain maize than analysts previously had in mind: 37,6 million hectares, while previously 36,8 million hectares were expected. It comes as a direct result soybean area lower: 34,2 million hectares. A decrease of over 600.000 hectares.

The wheat area is also lower. For spring wheat, an area of ​​5,18 million hectares is expected, which is lower than analysts thought. Hard durum wheat is also decreasing in area, although these figures are based on the situation at the end of February and the beginning of March: just before the major floods took place in the Midwest.

The USDA estimates corn supplies at 8,6 billion bushels. Analyst estimates were 270 million bushels higher (6,86 million tons), causing the stock to react sharply to a loss of nearly $7 per ton. The soy stock was also 1 million tons higher than analysts expected. However, again, flooding in the Midwest could still change these numbers.

Crop rotation
American arable farmers apparently have less confidence in the soybean market and prefer grain corn in 2019/2020. The area is 1,48 million hectares higher, causing soy to record a loss of 1,86 million hectares. Wheat has to make a concession again and the area is reduced by 830.000 hectares.

What has also had an effect is the fact that a lot of snow has fallen in the northern part of the Midwest this winter. As a result, arable farmers in the country prefer a later crop: corn, instead of wheat, for example. The area figures per state also show this.