Cheap and a lot of feed grain expected

For harvest 2019 expected the FAS predicts a European wheat yield of 153,5 million tons, which is a plus of 12% compared to last year. This will result in less imports and 4 million tonnes being exported, it believes. However, this does not prevent the ending stock from increasing significantly (+40%).

More wheat exports
These figures refer to the situation as of July 1, which is the start of the new marketing season for grains. The FAS thinks that countries in Europe will export 18% more wheat, which amounts to 26 million tons. This volume mainly comes from France (40%) and Romania (15%). Germany follows in third place with 3%.

North Africa is the largest sales area for European wheat. There are Russian privateers on the coast, especially in Morocco and Egypt, who can sell large volumes of cheap, high-quality wheat. The other countries around the Black Sea (such as Ukraine) are also extremely active on the export market. French exporters in African countries are also suffering greatly from competition from Eastern Europe. Within Europe, Italy and Spain purchase the most wheat.

Cheap feed raw materials
If we look at the current situation, a harvest is expected to be 3,9 million tons above last year. The total consumption of wheat in the European Union is estimated to be lower. In particular, less (feed) grain is purchased, because the feed companies buy more cheap corn (instead of wheat). This is the case in France, Germany, Spain, Denmark and Sweden. Most of this corn comes from Ukraine.

Wheat consumption for human consumption is estimated to be higher. It is estimated that mills are purchasing more wheat, especially in Germany, France and Poland. These are smaller volumes than on the feed market. In the United Kingdom, a closed bio-ethanol factory is being reopened to process wheat. Südzucker starts building a new factory in Austria, where wheat starch will be extracted.