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Inside Grains & Commodities

Drought and cold slow growth in Northern Europe

20 May 2019 - Anne Jan Doorn

The drought and cold in large parts of Northern and Central Europe have inhibited the development of various products. Nevertheless, the expectations for the harvest remain good. This is evident from the MARS report of the European Commission.

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Expectations for the winter wheat harvest in southern Europe are better, although this improvement is offset by lower harvest expectations in northern Europe. The European Commission writes in the MARS report namely that large areas of Northern and Central Europe are experiencing a rainfall deficit. The European Commission then refers to Germany, Poland, parts of Russia and the United Kingdom.

In addition, the European Commission writes in the MARS report that expectations for the winter wheat harvest in northern Poland, northeastern Germany, Hungary and the Czech Republic have been negatively affected by the recent drought.

Higher yield expectations
There were also areas where it was colder than normal in May. The European Commission writes in the report that the average temperature in Europe is 4 degrees Celsius colder than the long-term average. Nevertheless, the European Commission expects that the winter wheat yield in Europe will average 5,8 tonnes per hectare. This means that the yield forecast for Europe increases by 1% compared to the forecast published for April. The expectation is also 7,3% higher than last year.

The expectation for the European corn harvest has also been increased and is therefore likely to amount to 7,9 tons per hectare (previously this was 7,7 tons per hectare). Sugar beets are in poor condition in several regions, but the Commission still expects the harvest in Europe to be 1,7% higher than the 5-year average. However, it lowered the yield expectation to 76,5 tons per hectare. Finally, the MARS report states that the hectare yield for potatoes is expected to be 3% higher than average.

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