European crops are on the grill

The harvest of winter barley has started south of Paris and the combines are already moving further south. According to the first reports, the yields are between 7 and 9 tons per hectare. Sufficient precipitation has fallen in several places, although it has also been rained (where possible). French arable farmers are less satisfied with rapeseed. In many places the crop is in poor condition, which has various causes.

Water shortage
Government service FranceAgriMer leaves the forecast regarding crops unchanged. Especially in the north of France, the grains still need some time before they are ready for harvest, while it is very dry there. That is why 96 departments have already announced water restrictions, such as an irrigation ban. This area accounts for approximately 20% of France's agricultural land. 

In addition to northern France, it is also very dry in the central region below Paris. Farmers in this region are only allowed to irrigate for a few hours or sometimes not at all. The groundwater level is at a dangerously low level. The French geological survey reports that the groundwater level was too low at 60% of the measuring points. The situation is therefore more critical than last year.

With a warm summer ahead, these levels are expected to decline further. This week, temperatures of 35 to 40 degrees Celsius are expected in many places, breaking records. Thunderstorms may occur in the northwest at the end of the week.

Matif rises
After a positive start in week 25, wheat prices on the Matif in Paris fell back to their previous levels. Fueled by reports of extremely high temperatures, the price rose again on Monday, June 24 (+€2,75) at €183,50 per tonne. The December contract also recorded a plus: €2,75

Heat records
Italy will also break records, meteorologists think. The north of the country will experience temperatures between 37 and 40 degrees Celsius. In the south it is slightly cooler at 35 degrees Celsius. The Black Sea region has been experiencing persistently dry and warm weather for a long time.

The grain harvest has now started in Romania. Barley and wheat are also harvested in southern Russia. The heat does not damage crops there. The heat is a problem for late wheat and spring crops (such as corn).

Smaller Russian harvest
Market analysts are nevertheless discussing the figures for this year's Russian harvest. There is currently talk of a harvest between 80 million and 82,2 million tons. That was 72,1 million tons last year. Export expectations are also lower: 46 million to 48,9 million tons. The share of wheat is 36,5 million to 37,6 million tons. The drought and high temperatures are the cause of these reductions. Between July 2018 and May 2019, Russia exported 41,2 million tons of grain, of which 34,2 million tons was wheat.

The German temperature record can also be broken. This record is 40 degrees Celsius and dates from 2005. People in their thirties will most likely be recorded throughout the country this week. It will remain hot at the beginning of next week, after which the temperature will drop back to a level between 20 and 25 degrees.

Influence on German grains
After the extremely dry summer of last year, the German Farmers' Association (DBV) is reluctant to make any statements. The next 2 to 3 weeks are crucial for the crops. When Joachim Ruckwied, the association's chairman, looks at the current weather forecasts, he expects yields to be lower than previously thought. However, the low level of 2018 has not been matched. There was more than enough precipitation in May. Only in the north and northeast it remains very dry and a supply of soil moisture is lacking.

DBV expects the harvest of winter barley to start this week on light soils. The yield is estimated to be average and of good quality. Last year this average barley yield was 4,6 tons per hectare, compared to an average of 5,6 tons. The expectation for rapeseed and wheat is also that the yield will be average.

Situation in the Netherlands
The expectations are that the heat will increase throughout Europe can persist. The messages for the Netherlands have now been somewhat toned down. It will be slightly cooler from Wednesday 26 June, although the temperature will climb back to 30 degrees Celsius towards the weekend. More moderate, but drier, weather is expected for next week. A significant amount of precipitation (well above 100 millimeters) fell in June, especially in the south and northwest and Flevoland. There was less rain in the east and the reels there are already running at full speed.

With an evaporation of 7 millimeters per day, this moisture reserve quickly disappears. The heat yields a small minus for the grains. However, sufficient moisture is now crucial for crops such as potatoes and onions. The tuber formation has been good in potatoes, as has the Crop tour shows. With the current weather, the question is whether the plant will retain all its tubers. The coming weeks are therefore very important.