The wheat price, which has fallen further and further in the past period, is suddenly recovering. In particular, the wheat listing on the CBoT in Chicago shoots up in Week 37. The reason seems to be the WASDE report that will be published tomorrow.
In week 36, the lowest wheat price recorded in the past 1,5 years. Shortly thereafter, Chicago's CBoT rose nearly $1 a ton in 14 week. The US wheat quote was still at $3 per tonne on September 164,34, and touched $1 a week later. The WASDE report is probably the basis for this price increase. The rise in the CBoT has since stopped: a small decrease was visible on Tuesday 178,02 September. This was partly due to declines in the corn and soybean markets.
Lower harvest due to drought
The US Department of Agriculture's WASDE report will be released on Thursday, September 12. The market analysts expect that the wheat harvest in Argentina will be lower than previously expected. This is mainly due to the drought in the country, a problem that is also in Australia plays. The 'Down Under' harvest is currently estimated at 19,1 million tons. That's about 10% more than last year's crop, but still 22% below the 10-year average.
The Matif in Paris also shows an upward movement. The listing on September 11 was €170 per tonne, which is significantly higher than the September contract expired on Tuesday. In the meantime, the December contract has been transferred. Since the Matif often shows a correlation with the CBoT, it will not be surprising if the price rise on the Matif is also tempered in the short term.