The February 11 WASDE report did not bring earth-shattering news. However, the first signs of the phase 1 trade deal can be seen in the report, especially in soy.
Soy exports from the US are higher than previous WASDE reports expected. China has imported more soy than expected. The ending stock of soy has been reduced by 1.36 million tons compared to the previous report.
This brings the ending stock in the US to 11.56 million tons. This reduction is entirely due to the increase in exports. From a global perspective, it is striking that soy production in Brazil is increasing sharply: due to better weather conditions in the important production area of Mato Grosso, production increases by 2 million.
With regard to wheat, the report highlights the reduction in closing stocks. The expected ending stock of wheat is therefore at the lowest level in the past 5 years. The closing stock has decreased by 680.000 tons of wheat, bringing it to 25.6 million tons. This correction is entirely due to higher wheat exports. The reason for this is that US wheat has become more competitive in the global market.
Pressure on corn prices
The monthly corn production forecast remains unchanged from the previous month. The calculated closing stock of corn has also remained unchanged. What has changed is exports. This has been reduced by 1.27 million tons. The reason given is that exports were very slow during the entire month of January. This caused a decline in the corn quotation on the CBoT in Chicago.