Winter cereals are currently more affected by an extremely mild winter than it is doing them any good. It is mainly the persistent rain that causes problems in Europe. France, Germany and the United Kingdom are all involved.
The French statistical agency Agreste has again adjusted its area figures downwards. Winter wheat recorded a minus of 5,6%, bringing it to 4,7 million hectares. Compared to the 5-year average, the area is 6,2% smaller. No less than 20% less wheat has been sown in Britain and almost 18% less in central France. The barley area is stable, but smaller than the average.
Significantly less rapeseed
The largest decrease is noticeable in rapeseed. Once again Agreste cuts the numbers. A smaller area of 2,1% is estimated for the coming harvest year. Compared to the 5-year average, even a quarter less has been sown. The French area amounts to 1,08 million hectares. Agreste has adjusted the wheat yield upwards to 39,6 million tons. A small plus of 112.000 tons.
Persistent precipitation also hinders winter grains in Germany. In January and the first half of February, a third to a half more precipitation fell than average. It is especially wet in northern Germany. The German liquid manure season started on February 1, but due to the wetness, little has been spread yet. This has not caused any problems so far.
Late sowing suffers from nuisance
Early sown wheat and barley are doing well on average in our eastern neighbors. Plots sown later, with a non-ideal structure, show a poorer picture. However, there are also many places where precipitation does not yet cause any nuisance. The subsurface was extremely dry, making a large buffer capacity available. Plots that were sown late (at the end of October) do suffer from flooding. In many regions no more sowing took place after that time.
Nuisance in England
In England, storms are again causing flooding and locally flooding. Some plots have already been flooded several times. It is feared that initial development will cause problems because the root system is not sufficiently developed and many nutrients have been washed away. Here too, late-sown crops face the most problems. Some insiders are already looking ahead to late spring and early summer. A poor root system may cause problems in the growing season, when it becomes dry again. The advice is therefore to start the first nitrogen application as soon as possible.
The wet autumn is clearly leaving its mark on the British grain area. About 170.000 hectares of winter wheat still had to be sown at the end of last year, although these figures are estimated to be considerably higher by the farmers themselves. In some areas, less than 50% of the planned area is in the ground. According to official figures, the area of winter barley would even decrease by 12%. Good for almost 400.000 hectares. The planned area of spring barley is almost 30% higher than last year. The rapeseed area has been decimated by almost a quarter. Mainly due to challenging growing conditions.
The MARS report, which was published on Monday February 17, confirms the picture that the north of Europe is very wet. The south, on the other hand, is drier than average. Winter grains have not been hardened off, but that has not yet led to a risk.
Low euro exchange rate, more trade
In trade, a low rate of the euro against the dollar helps make wheat from Europe attractive to buyers. Reductions in European wheat production are also supporting the futures market somewhat. On Monday, February 17, it will continue to ripple at Friday's level, around €194,25 per tonne on the Matif for the March contract. May and September do record slight reductions. Until mid-February, almost 70% more wheat has been exported this season compared to the previous one. Barley exports are 50% higher.
Mild weather in Black Sea area
The winter was also very mild in Russia and Ukraine with little frost and snow. The forecast continues to indicate relatively warm weather, causing crops to be 2 weeks ahead of other years. Arable farmers are preparing to start fertilizing winter grains. An increased area of winter grains and wheat means that Russia is heading for a potential mega harvest. Analysts estimate that Russia will sell most of its wheat this month, although arable farmers are still cautious about their sales.
Fear of flooding in US
Weather news is also emerging in the United States. After an extreme spring in 2019, farmers in the Midwest are still anxious. Long-term forecasts again hint at a wet and cool spring. The National Weather Service has issued a warning for flooding on the Mississippi River and tributaries this week. Last year, flooding of these rivers caused $20 billion in damage. It is feared that it will cause problems again this spring. Because a lot of precipitation fell this winter, the soil is saturated in many places. That increases the risk of flooding. Another factor is the amount of snow in the northern Midwest and Plains. There is less snow, but it does contain more water. That is an important factor for determining the flood risk.
It cannot be said with certainty whether major flooding will occur again. The most important factor is the amount of precipitation when the thaw starts. Last year, a lot of precipitation followed a warm period, which released a lot of water at the same time. The long-term weather forecast expects wetter than average weather. The next 2 months will be crucial for the American spring. The MARS report expects warmer than average and wet weather in Europe for the long term until April.