The monthly WASDE report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects record grain maize yields. Estimates for the production of wheat and soybean show a mixed picture in the May forecast.
The May WASDE report estimates a record corn yield of 16 billion bushels (about 406 million tons). The expectation is based on an expected higher area of grain maize, based on an average growing season over the past 30 years. Due to the expected record yield, the final stock of grain corn will reach a record high of 18,1 billion bushels (approximately 459 million tons). This despite the lower opening stock at the overture of the opening of the trading season.
Wheat yield
The international outlook for wheat in the report shows higher consumption, higher ending stocks, higher inventories and more trade in wheat. The foreign supply of wheat to the United States is expected to increase. This is because higher yields are expected in 2020/2021 in the major wheat exporting countries (Argentina, Australia, Canada and Russia). Australia is expected to have the largest increase from last year to 24 million tonnes. This is 8,8 million tons higher, which means that it is expected to recover from the years of drought.
Lower wheat production is expected in the US. This is estimated at 1,866 billion bushels (approximately 50 million tons), a decrease of 3% compared to last year. It is expected that less wheat will be used as feed. This is partly because more corn is used and it will displace wheat.
Soybean
As for soybeans, lower ending stocks and higher exports are expected in the US. US soybean production is estimated at 4,125 billion bushels (approximately 112 million tons), up from 568 million bushels (approximately 15 million tons) based on increased acreage and trend yields. Despite the lower starting stocks, 5% higher soy stocks are expected to 4,720 billion bushels (approximately 128 million tons).
Global soy production is expected to rise 26,6 million tons to 362,8 million tons. This is mainly due to an increase in Brazil of 7,0 million tons, where production of 131 million tons is expected. A higher yield of 53,5 million tons is also expected in Argentina, an increase of 2,5 million tons.