Can large-scale importer Iraq without wheat imports?

This is reported by the international news agency Bloomberg. The Iraqis estimate to harvest more than 5 million tons of wheat by 2021. That is more than the 4,5 million tons needed for the subsidized national food program. So far this year, growers have sold 4,9 million tons to the government in the current season ending next month, roughly the same amount as in 2019.

Corona crisis
The Iraqi government is stimulating grain production in order to reduce import dependency. Now that the corona crisis is reducing oil revenues, this has become even more important. Iraq's current account deficit is set to reach 22% of gross domestic product this year, the largest deficit in the Middle East and North Africa, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Thanks in part to ample rainfall, Iraq no longer has to import wheat since it bought more than 2019 tons from the US and Canada in February 400.000. However, whether Iraq meets its production target for 2021 depends on more than the weather.

Baghdad has asked neighboring Turkey not to reduce the amount of water flowing from the Turkish side of the border into Iraq's two main rivers, the Tigris and Euphrates. It has requested similar talks with Iran, its eastern neighbour, Al-Nayef said. The status of those talks is unclear.

Trend break
Iraq's current self-sufficiency rate in wheat, fragile as it may be, marks a turning point after decades of relying on imports from suppliers such as Cargill and Archer-Daniels-Midland. The 80s conflicts with Iran and the devastation of the two Gulf Wars against US-led forces paralyzed domestic grain production. Years of drought exacerbated import dependence, as did a decline in water supplies from Turkey and changes by Iran in the course of rivers flowing into Iraq.

30% larger area in a year
At one time, the Sumer region of ancient Mesopotamia, which encompassed much of modern Iraq, was one of the first civilizations to cultivate grain. That makes the grain import dependence of the last decades all the more striking. The main grain-producing provinces today are Wasit in the east and Nineveh, Salahuddin and Kirkuk in the north, on the border with Turkey.

Production improved somewhat after the Iraqi government defeated Islamic State terrorists in 2014 and encouraged displaced farmers to return to wheat-growing areas in northern Iraq. To promote grain production, the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture introduced better irrigation systems and drought-resistant wheat varieties.

Compared to last year, the total land sown with wheat has even increased by almost 30% this season. Iraq has also stored enough water in its reservoirs to cover the same acreage next year.