Rapeseed harvest forecast revised upwards

The forecast of the rapeseed harvest in the European Union (including Great Britain) has been increased to 16,79 million tons by market bureau Strategie Grains. In the previous monthly report, the agency still assumed a harvest of 16,75 million tons. The upward revision is mainly due to favorable conditions in Lithuania and Poland.

Less rapeseed than last year
Although the harvest forecast has now been revised slightly upwards for the first time in months, the figure this year is unlikely to exceed the meager level of last year (Strategy Grains expects a harvest of 17,12 million tons of rapeseed). Last year's disappointing result was mainly caused by poor harvests in France, Central and Eastern Europe and Great Britain.

The latter country is also experiencing many problems with the harvest this season. The first figures for crops in the south and east of Great Britain are far below the long-term average (approximately 28% had been harvested by 49 July). Early winter rapeseed currently yields a result of 2,5 to 2,9 tons per hectare, while in 2019 an average of 3,3 tons per hectare was achieved. The 5-year average is even 3,5 tons per hectare. The oil content is now 43% to 46% and the humidity is around 9%. It is also reported that here and there some drying is done to reduce this to 8%.

Damage caused by rapeseed gloss beetle
The expectations for the rapeseed harvest in Great Britain are so low, partly due to the fact that the product has been severely affected by the dry spring. Although this naturally also plays a major role in other parts of Europe. In addition, Great Britain has a lot of fields with damage from the rapeseed gloss beetle, as a result of which some fields do not even deliver more than 0,5 tons of rapeseed per hectare.

In the Netherlands too, there is talk of far from ideal conditions, mainly because of the dry spring. Yet there is no mention of extreme damage. According to the cultivation advisors, this is because the acreage of rapeseed in the Netherlands is very small. Since 2013, when the area was almost 3.500 hectares, it has been acreage shrunk to 1.840 hectares in 2019. As a result, for example, the rapeseed gloss beetle is almost non-existent in our country.

Record for input expected
Because the production of rapeseed in the European Union is again lower than last year, the market office also expects that the European Union will again import a record volume of rapeseed: 6,1 million tons. This is, however, slightly lower than forecast by the market office one month earlier. At that time, Strategy Grains still expected an import volume of 6,2 million tons.

Crop advisors expect this trend to continue in the coming years, causing rapeseed cultivation in the European Union to become smaller and smaller. The combination of the disappearance of many different crop protection products and more and more problems in cultivation makes it less and less attractive for growers in Great Britain and Germany to grow rapeseed.