The French statistical service Agreste has revised the harvest forecasts for wheat, barley and rapeseed downwards. For example, the statistics service expects the yield of common wheat to be another 1,4 million lower this season and the rapeseed harvest is expected to be 4,8% lower than last year.
The new data shows that Agreste expects the production of soft wheat in France this season to reach 29,7 million tons, while the agency expected a harvest of 31,1 million tons a few weeks ago. If this new harvest forecast becomes reality, the yield of soft wheat will be 9,8 million tons lower than last year (-25%). However, it is reported that the yields vary greatly regionally. For example, in the departments of Normandy, Hauts-de-France and Grand Est, yields are close to or higher than the 5-year average.
In addition, the service reports that it expects the yield of barley (summer and winter barley together) to be 1 million tons lower than previously predicted. Agreste now takes into account a total barley production of 11,3 million tons, which is more than 17% less than was produced in the previous year. In concrete terms, this concerns 7 million tons of winter barley and 4,3 million tons of spring wheat. According to FranceAgriMer the yield decline in winter barley is also partly due to the decrease in area (-12%). On the other hand, the area of spring barley has increased by 5% over the past 52 years, which means that the expected yield for this year is 37% above the 5-year average.
Rapeseed yield also down
Not only have the harvest forecasts for wheat and barley been reduced, because the statistics service also expects less rapeseed in France. Agreste has reduced the expected rapeseed harvest by 100.000 tons to 3,3 million tons, which is expected to produce 4,8% less rapeseed than last year. Compared to the average from 2015 to 2019, a loss of 35,7% is even visible.
According to the statistics service, the decline in yield is largely caused by a limited supply of crop protection products, making it increasingly difficult to combat pests. This has had consequences for yields, especially in Burgundy, Lorraine and Champagne-Ardenne. The late frost period and the drought in the spring have also taken their toll. The statistics service does report that the oil content is better than last year: almost 44%.