The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its forecast for the global wheat harvest for the 2020/2021 season upwards. The organization foresees a larger harvest in Russia in particular, while smaller harvests are expected in France and Romania.
According to the IGC, the global wheat harvest for the 2020/2021 season will amount to 763,3 million tons of wheat. This is an increase of 1,3 million tons compared to expectations in July. Especially in Russia, the IGC expects a larger harvest: almost 80 million tons. This is 2 million tons more than expected in July and the second biggest harvest ever in the country. Revenues in Poland and Spain have also been adjusted slightly upwards.
However, if we look at the rest of Europe, the picture is slightly less rosy. The IGC expects that almost 4 million tons less will be harvested in the European Union than foreseen in July. The total wheat harvest is therefore expected to amount to 121,8 million tons. The negative adjustment is mainly caused by poorer harvests in Romania and France. In Ukraine, where the harvest is almost complete, the IGC leaves the forecast at 26,5 million tons. Last year, 29,2 million tons were harvested in this country.
Storm ravages United States
In mid-August, part of the United States was ravaged by a heavy storm. It resulted in a loss of 4 million hectares of grain. The IGC expects, among other things, that the harvest in the United States will amount to 50 million tons of wheat, which is about 2,3 million tons less than during the last campaign. However, it is expected that the harvest can be further reduced in the next estimate (end of September), because only then will it be really clear how much product has been lost during the summer storms.
The IGC also expects international wheat exports to be 2 million tons lower than last year at 181,2 million tons. Due to the smaller harvest in the European Union and the strong euro, only 23,5 million tons of wheat are expected to be exported from the European Union. Last year, exports from Europe amounted to 37,1 million tons.
China strongly on the market
China in particular has been active in the wheat market in recent years. In the 2019/2020 season, the country imported 6,6 million tons, the highest result in approximately 6 years. It seems that Beijing wants to build on this, because the country has also imported large quantities of wheat in recent weeks. As a result, the Matif in Paris took a step up: +€10 to €188,50 per tonne on Thursday 27 August.